Coalition of the willing’s vital role

With Vladimir Putin quibbling and lying, uncertainty surrounds hopes for a Ukraine ceasefire. Because of the Russian tyrant, who is an indicted war criminal, it is not yet clear there will be a peace deal. But leaders of the 29-nation “coalition of the willing” – democracies, including Australia, but excluding the US, that have pledged ongoing support for Kyiv – were right during their virtual summit at the weekend to move their backing for Ukraine’s security to what the summit’s convener, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, termed “an operational phase”. Coalition military leaders will meet later this week to make specific plans.

Donald Trump’s confidence that Putin “wants to get it (the war) ended” is not being borne out by the Russian ruler’s actions. Nothing Putin has done or said since Mr Trump began his war tilt towards Russia suggests Putin has any real intention of doing so. Instead, as The Wall Street Journal editorialised, the US President’s “bludgeoning of Ukraine to make a deal without promises of US aid or security … has given Mr Putin every incentive to keep the war going to put himself in the strongest possible position if there ever are serious peace talks. Does Mr Trump have a Plan B beyond beating up Ukraine to make more unilateral concessions?”.

Given that context, and the Trump administration’s unpredictability, the weekend summit could not have been more important, including for Australia’s strategic interests. As Anthony Albanese said after participating and pledging to consider possible Australian participation in a peacekeeping force: “Australia stands with Ukraine, and we will continue to do so for as long as it takes. It is the right thing to do and it is in Australia’s national interest. Because what happens in the Euro-Atlantic has serious implications for our region – the Indo-Pacific – and vice versa.”

The war was not only a struggle for the people of Ukraine and their sovereignty, the Prime Minister said. It was a struggle for the international rule of law. “President Putin’s regime has imperialistic designs for Ukraine and beyond. We must ensure Russia’s illegal and immoral actions are not rewarded through any peace process,” Mr Albanese added.

Opposition reluctance to see Australian boots on the ground – even if that means no more than being part of a peacekeeping force – is understandable. Warnings like that from former Home Affairs secretary Mike Pezzullo, that a “peacekeeping force” would be more akin to a “war-fighting force”, must be considered.

But so too must the importance of helping ensure Putin does not emerge victorious in Ukraine. Doing so is vital to our own security and that of democracies of the Indo-Pacific region, given the close “no limits” alliance between Putin and Chinese ruler Xi Jinping.

Mr Albanese has said that if Australia does take part, our involvement would be “small”. At this stage, that should reassure those wary of our participation in an operation so far from home. There are precedents in previous military operations in the Middle East and Afghanistan.

But for the present, the main issue is not so much about the composition of a peacekeeping force but whether there is to be a peace deal to be policed.

Putin’s prevarication was predictable. But any peace deal must not be achieved on Putin’s terms. The coalition of the willing is vital to ensuring that the Russian tyrant does not get his way.