Coalition hopes look to Easter for resurrection

The Easter break presents an opportunity for both sides of politics to take stock of how they are faring in the federal election campaign. Anthony Albanese is banking on a modest pause in proceedings in a way that does not disrupt the momentum believed to be running Labor’s way.

Peter Dutton’s campaign is in need of a more substantial reboot. The latest Newspoll results show there is much work still to be done if the Coalition wants to persuade voters to change government after just one term.

All is not lost for the Coalition, however. As always, the election will come down to what happens in individual seats, something that cannot easily be understood with national polling. The two-party-preferred measure has remained steady with Labor on 52 per cent to the Coalition’s 48. Mr Dutton has clear majority support on the crucial issues of defence and growing the economy.

Where the Opposition Leader gives ground to the Prime Minister is in the areas of health, lower taxes, cost of living and buying a first home. On the question of who is more trusted to lead Australia through the turbulence and uncertainty caused by Donald Trump, voters opted for Mr Albanese (39 per cent) over Mr Dutton (32 per cent). This is a poor reflection on Mr Dutton’s ability to cut through to voters in what should be a natural area of strength.

Mr Dutton must provide an answer to the pivotal question posed by editor-at-large Paul Kelly on Saturday: Has he done enough to inject the Liberals with a strong enough brand to persuade a cynical electorate to dump a government it dislikes? Kelly says the criticism of the Opposition Leader is that he has entered the campaign looking underdone on policy and short on vision, shunning tax and industrial relations reform, avoiding culture war issues, talking up geostrategic dangers but still not releasing his defence budget policy, preaching a better budget bottom line but devoid of detail, and being weak on an economic-growth and productivity-enhancing agenda.

Mr Dutton has been unnecessarily spooked by the behaviour of the US President and dogged by a federal Labor Party willing to play hard and fast with the truth on cuts to spending. The foundation of Labor’s campaign against Mr Dutton is based on the false premise that a Dutton government must find $600bn to fund its nuclear electricity ambitions.

Labor has effectively turned its own biggest weakness – mismanagement of the energy transition – into an electoral strength. With two weeks to go in the campaign, this sleight of hand must be put firmly in the public spotlight.

The Coalition can rightly argue that the $600bn figure has literally been made up by a partisan renewable energy lobby group with big connections and dubious international members. As we report on Monday, the Smart Energy Council enjoys charitable donation status and last year paid its three management and staff a combined $1.3m. The SEC has donated to Labor in the past and run partisan campaigns calling on voters to “chuck out” Scott Morrison.

The claim by Employment Minister Murray Watt on Sunday that the SEC could be considered an expert group on the cost of nuclear power is preposterous. But Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie did Mr Dutton no favours by prevaricating over what modelling had shown the Coalition’s nuclear policy would cost. Demolishing the $600bn nuclear figure that has been weaponised by Labor is crucial to disarming the broader political argument being ranged against it.

With pre-poll voting starting this week, Mr Dutton has left his run late. He must act quickly to transform his lead in the crucial areas of economic management and defence into a more enduring narrative of why what happens today matters for the future.