Coal use gives reality check on climate campaigning

Confirmation that the world’s use of coal is surging back to record levels underscores the sharp disconnect between what is said about climate change action and what is taking place. The chasm that exists between rhetoric and reality holds grave lessons for politicians who have misread the trends on fossil fuels. The latest figures released by the International Energy Agency confirm that coal use is back near record levels with strong future rises guaranteed because of actions already taken in China and India, in particular. The trend in coal consumption explains why it was simply not possible for world leaders to reach agreement on exiting fossil fuels at the Glasgow climate summit.

With Joe Biden’s climate agenda in the US unravelling as support for his presidency plumbs new depths, leaders elsewhere must be realistic about where the climate change agenda is going. As expected, Anthony Albanese is facing tough pressure from all directions on how the ALP should deal with the issue of climate change going into next year’s federal election. Forces within the ALP are urging greater action, giving credence to claims by Scott Morrison that Labor’s declared policy position is just an opening bid. The uncomfortable fact is that criticism of Australia, whatever targets are announced, looks ridiculous in the face of rising coal consumption not only in Asia but in the US and Europe as well. According to the IEA, after falling in 2019 and last year, global power generation from coal is expected to jump by 9 per cent this year to an all-time high of 10,350 terawatt hours. The rebound is being driven by rapid economic recovery from the pandemic, which has pushed up electricity demand much faster than low-carbon supplies can keep up. The steep rise in the price of natural gas also has increased demand for coal power by making it more cost-competitive.

In China, where more than half of global coal-fired electricity generation takes place, coal power is expected to grow by 9 per cent this year. In India, it is forecast to grow by 12 per cent. This would set new highs in both countries. According to the IEA, coal power generation is set to increase by almost 20 per cent this year in the US and the EU. What the data shows is that energy is a complex business. The billions of dollars being spent on renewable energy is not translating into a fall in demand for fossil fuels. Meanwhile, high prices for gas are pushing developed countries back to coal. With Mr Biden’s headline Build Back Better plan stalled in congress, the US administration is facing the reality that restricting oil and gas production leads to higher prices at the bowser and unhappy voters. Consumer hostility is forcing the White House to reconsider, with Deputy Energy Secretary David Turk saying the Biden administration “is not standing in the way of increasing domestic oil production to meet today’s energy needs”. But, as The Wall Street Journal explains, the President’s climate envoy, John Kerry, is busy pressuring banks and financial institutions to reduce their commitments to US oil and gas companies. It is a similar story in Britain, where Boris Johnson is coming under increasing fire for moves to lift the price of heating through new technologies and taxes.

Back home, having settled on a net-zero emissions by 2050 target, the Morrison government is prepared to campaign on its record of overachieving the targets that have already been set for 2030 to cut CO2 emissions by 26 to 28 per cent from 2005 levels. The Opposition Leader had hoped a small increase in ambition to a cut of 43 per cent would be enough to allow Labor to keep campaigning under the radar on the issue. But, as Geoff Chambers reports on Saturday, this strategy is starting to unravel. Labor elder statesman Barry Jones has called the party out for not speaking plainly about where it stands on climate. Mr Jones says Labor’s Powering Australia policy “is indeed an energy policy but not a climate change policy”. He criticises the policy’s missing words: science, climate change, greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, methane, atmosphere, temperature, coal and Great Barrier Reef. The danger for Mr Albanese is in being dragged further towards the Greens, confirming the Prime Minister’s main charge against the ALP on climate that it is beholden to extremists.

The latest IEA figures provide a welcome reality check on where the world is going, where Australia fits in and where action is needed. In the words of IEA director of energy markets, Keisuke Sadamori, “the pledges to reach net-zero emissions made by many countries, including China and India, should have very strong implications for coal – but these are not yet visible in our near-term forecast, reflecting the major gap between ambitions and action”.