China seeks to take the lead in a Trump 2.0 world

China’s President Xi Jinping has been on a charm offensive with other world leaders at the G20 and APEC meetings. For Beijing, it has been both a bridge-building exercise to prop up difficult economic times at home and an insurance policy against the turbulent times that might be coming with US president-elect Donald Trump back on the world stage. As we editorialised on Friday, Beijing’s aim has been to position itself as a pragmatic, stable partner amid the uncertainties triggered by Mr Trump’s disruptions. Analysts say Mr Xi’s aim goes beyond building alternative trade networks to Western influence. China is seeking to build a sanction-proof supply chain and financial network immune to Western pressures. Australia was on the list of countries wooed by Mr Xi, but it is not alone.

China is focused particularly on the strategic competition under way to remodel existing institutions and transfer both funds and decision-making powers from developed liberal democracies to the Global South, countries that used to be called the Third World. China’s outreach to Australia can be viewed in this context. At a meeting on the sidelines of the Brazil G20 talks, Mr Xi urged Anthony Albanese to join him in transforming the China-Australia relationship into a more mature, stable and fruitful partnership that would project “stability and certainty to the region and the wider world”.

It is a profound turnaround from the CCP’s wolf warrior diplomacy that saw punitive sanctions imposed on Australian exports of barley, wine and lobsters. Removing the trade sanctions is welcome but it has also restored the leverage Beijing has over Australia at a time China is seeking to break what it considers as the global US hegemony. There can be no illusions that China’s new diplomatic outreach reflects a bigger self-interest. For Australia, it is a calculated attempt to weaken our bond with our major defence ally, the US. The Prime Minister confirmed the US alliance was raised during a 30-minute Rio discussion.

In his address to the G20 summit, Mr Xi called for “greater international consensus in the economic, financial, trade, digital and eco-environmental fields, among others, to improve global governance and promote an equal and orderly multipolar world, and a universally beneficial and inclusive economic globalisation”. He said developed countries should provide developing countries with the necessary funding, technology and capacity-building support, and that China “will provide support to developing countries to the best of its ability”. Where the Chinese media was quick to praise Mr Albanese and assert “there is no fundamental conflict of interests between China and Australia”, he was keen to highlight publicly that areas of disagreement remain. “We have different political systems. I raised the issue of human rights. I raised Taiwan. I raised cyber. I raised the supply of assets to Russia. I raised the ICBM missile test that I previously raised as well with the Chinese premier. So we raised issues that matter to Australia,” Mr Albanese said.

Beijing’s charm offensive presents opportunity and profound challenges for Australia. The comments of former prime minister Kevin Rudd, an acknowledged China expert, are worth absorbing. In his recently published book On Xi Jinping, Dr Rudd said China’s stabilisation of ties with the US and its allies represented merely a “shift in tactical diplomacy” as Beijing continued to press its challenge to the existing international order. These efforts were on full display at the G20.