China says developed nations should COP net zero by 2040
The demands for accelerated action from Europe, the US and presumably Australia were made by China’s special envoy for climate change, Liu Zhenmin, and reported in the US news outlet Politico. Mr Liu said peaking emissions early in the developed world was “climate justice” and was needed to give developing nations more time to industrialise. This goes to the heart of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change process, which is really a struggle between the riches of Western nations and the expectations of the developing world. In the bureaucratese of UN diplomacy, it is called “common but differentiated responsibilities” and is a bedrock of the Paris Agreement.
The different expectations dominate the Belem negotiations, which are following a predictable path with furrowed brows and late-night sittings aiming to claim sufficient last-minute victory to keep the process alive. Organisers have made a demand that critical issues be resolved midweek so there may be a chance the COP will end on time. Three familiar issues are forcing negotiators to burn the midnight oil. And there is a sting in the tail for Australia, particularly if the Albanese government perseveres with its foolhardy push to host next year’s COP31 in Adelaide. The main game in Belem is how to increase the $US300bn a year that developing countries are being offered for climate action from developed countries to the $US1.3 trillion ($2 trillion) a year they are being told is possible, notably by China.
Another major issue is how to get signatories to the Paris Agreement to pledge action to meet the goals of limiting future temperature rises. But the most significant issue for Australia is the attempt to put a plan to phase out fossil fuel production and use back on to the formal agenda. With a consensus decision required, it is unlikely that a timetable for any phase-out will be agreed. But if Brazil succeeds in getting mention of a phase-out into the final text, it will be considered enough for activists to claim the Belem COP has been a success and the issue will dominate discussions at COP31. This will be a difficult issue for Australia if COP31 is held in Adelaide. If Australia drops its bid, as now looks possible, it still will be the top order of business at a leaders meeting in the Pacific that has been suggested as a compromise.
The bigger game at play in Belem is the way in which China has managed to weaponise climate change diplomacy for its geopolitical ends. With the US out of the talks, China is being lauded by activists and is taking a more assertive stand. Chinese negotiators have criticised the EU for not acting fast enough with its plan to cut emissions by between 66.3 per cent and 72.5 per cent by 2035 and by 90 per cent by 2040 compared with 1990 levels.
Unlike Australia, which has sent hundreds of delegates to Belem, the US has made a decision to stay away. The US State Department said: “The Trump administration refused to use taxpayer dollars to send or facilitate any official travel for this conference, which is dedicated to hamstringing the American economy and bankrupting the American people.” Something to think about.
With the US absent from the colourful but pretentious climate change gathering under way in the Amazon city of Belem, Brazil, China is pressing its advantage. It wants developed countries to bring forward their net-zero targets to “before 2040”. China, the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emissions nation, still considers itself to be a developing country. It has given itself until 2060 to hit net zero and does not have to peak emissions until the end of this decade.