China advances into Indo-Pacific

Pacific Minister Pat Conroy’s disclosure that the Albanese government was forewarned by Nauru that it was switching diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China adds to speculation surrounding the move by the small Pacific Island state, 4000km off Australia’s northeast coast. Mr Conroy said Australia “respects … a decision by the sovereign government of Nauru”, which did not ask for extra funds from Australia to prevent the switch. But claims in Taiwan suggest Nauru’s move to become the latest customer for Beijing’s debt-trap diplomacy followed Taipei’s rejection of an appeal by Nauru for $125m after Australia wound back its offshore migration processing facility on the island. Whatever the details, the move adds another stepping stone to China’s regional encroachment. Nauru is farther from Australia than Solomon Islands (2800km). And it remains to be seen what, if anything, China offered the small island by way of financial and other support.

According to reports in Taiwan, Nauru “ambushed” Taipei on Monday with the announcement it was switching sides after the success of the Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan’s presidential election, which was seen as a setback for Chinese President Xi Jinping. Jarden Kephas, Nauru’s ambassador to Taiwan, claimed he was given no advance warning of the diplomatic switch. “It was announced by my government, and I was told to pack up and go,” he said. His fellow Pacific diplomat in Taipei, Tuvalu ambassador Bikenibeu Paeniu, said Nauru’s move was “especially sad for me and the people of Tuvalu … China is going around selling itself to countries in the Pacific”.

In October, Nauruan president Russ Joseph Kun was given a hero’s reception on a trip to Taiwan to celebrate close bilateral ties between the small island state and Taipei. When he returned home he was ousted in a no-confidence motion by David Adeang, who made Monday’s sudden announcement of the switch. But on Sunday Nauru was one of the first countries to congratulate Taiwan on the success of its presidential election.

Taiwanese Deputy Foreign Minister Tien Chung-kwang’s warning that Beijing has a long history of “delivering white elephants” to supplicant countries could prove pertinent. It does not diminish the strategic importance of the success of China’s offers of largesse in Solomon Islands and other places.

Mr Conroy is right when he says Nauru has made a decision and Australia respects it, but that does not alleviate concerns about Chinese encroachment. That is clear in the holiday paradise of the Maldives, consisting of 1190 islands between Sri Lanka and India.

On Saturday, new Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu returned from meeting Mr Xi in Beijing. On Sunday Mr Muizzu announced that he had ordered India, which has long kept a small military force in Maldives to maintain security, to leave by March. China announced, concurrently, that it had concluded infrastructure, medical care, energy and agriculture deals with Mr Muizzu. These are designed to supplant the longstanding influence of India, one of Australia’s Quad alliance partners, in the strategic archipelago.

Nauru and the Maldives represent a significant Chinese advance into the Indo-Pacific. There is no reason for the Albanese government to believe it has dealt with the problem or that it is doing any better than the Morrison government in doing so.