China accelerates nuclear reach

The Pentagon’s warning that China is at a stage of “dramatic acceleration” in building up its nuclear weapons arsenal underlines the vital importance to Australia of maintaining the closest possible strategic ties to the US. The 170-page study sent to the US congress on Wednesday AEDT discloses that China is on course to have at least 1500 nuclear warheads, more than three times its current stockpile, by 2035. That is well behind the current arsenals held by Russia and the US. Together, Russia and the US account for 90 per cent of the world’s nuclear weapons – Russia with 5977 nuclear warheads and the US a close second with 5428, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Alarmingly, however, the Pentagon report suggests Beijing’s rapid build-up of its nuclear arsenal is an indication that it is moving away from its previously declared strategy of having “the minimum number of nuclear weapons required for China’s national security”. The Pentagon report also notes China is building up its space and counterspace capabilities with a range of advanced technologies aimed at establishing “a means to deter and counter third-party intervention during a regional military conflict” – clearly a reference to a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which some US defence experts believe could take place in 2027, the 100th anniversary of the foundation of the People’s Liberation Army.

The report makes clear, however, that China’s military build-up has more than just Taiwan and countering the US and its allies in the Asia-Pacific region in its sights. It notes “in 2021 China significantly increased engagement with African, Latin American and Middle Eastern countries”, warning that in countries as disparate and far-flung as Cambodia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, the United Arab Emirates and Tajikistan there are signs Beijing may be trying to establish “military logistics facilities” similar to the base it has in the highly strategic Horn of Africa nation of Djibouti. “A global (Chinese) military logistics network could disrupt US military operations as the PRC’s global military objectives evolve,” the Pentagon report states.

From an Australian perspective, the Pentagon report comprehensively endorses the vital importance of our AUKUS pact with the US and Britain, and the need for an even closer relationship with the US when it comes to preparing for a potential military conflict between the major powers that could start in space and involve the destruction of satellites critical for most aspects of modern-day life.

As Lieutenant General John Shaw, the Deputy Commander of US Space Command, told foreign editor Greg Sheridan on Thursday in making the argument for “intimate co-operation” between the US and Australia on space security: “Our society is more reliant on space today than it has ever been … our potential adversaries have noticed this and they have started developing for some time threats to those systems.” Rear Admiral Richard Seif, commander of the US Navy’s submarines in Asia and the Pacific, was making the same point about the need for closer bilateral co-operation when he spoke in an interview with Paul Garvey of the value of getting Australian sailors aboard US boats as part of the AUKUS deal. He also raised the possibility of stationing US Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines in Australian waters.

Given the pace of China’s “dramatic acceleration” in building up its nuclear warheads stockpile and its other strategic advances in the Asia-Pacific and beyond, General Shaw’s and Admiral Seif’s views are of immense significance to our own strategic priorities. When, as the Pentagon study shows, China is making major advances in its nuclear stockpile and Russia has the world’s largest arsenal, Australia’s strategic interests clearly lie in deepening our alliance with the US. So does that of democracies everywhere, especially in our region. The ominous warnings implicit in the Pentagon report must not be overlooked.