Ceasefire puts Trump back in Middle East driver’s seat

The Israel-Hamas hostage deal marks a defining moment in global affairs. It signals the arrival of president Donald Trump mark II, with all the implications that holds for allies and foes of the US. Hopefully, it will provide the conditions for a greater political realignment in the Middle East and relieve some of the pressures that have led to an outbreak of senseless violence and anti-Semitism, including here in Australia. The deal is being seen as an echo of the US hostages freed from Iran in the Reagan presidency’s first minutes.

There is no doubt that Mr Trump’s declaration, that there would be “all hell to pay” if hostages were not freed by January 20, weighed heavily on the minds of negotiators. He has now publicly set his sights on brokering a bigger Middle East compact. “We will continue promoting PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH throughout the region, as we build upon the momentum of this ceasefire to further expand the Historic Abraham Accords,” Mr Trump posted on Truth Social.

Clearly, the deal falls short in the fact that not all hostages are included or will be released immediately. Instead, Hamas on Sunday will begin to free 33 of the 94 remaining hostages, dead or alive. In return, Israel will release hundreds of hardened Palestinian prisoners and withdraw from most of Gaza, but will continue to monitor the Philadelphi Corridor – the belt of land running along the Gaza-Egypt border – that Hamas has used to smuggle weapons across the border with Egypt.

The Gaza border with Egypt at the Rafah crossing may be reopened, under the control of the Palestinian Authority and with EU observers, so Palestinians will be able to leave. While Israeli soldiers would still have a presence in northern Gaza and along the Philadelphi Corridor, troops would withdraw from Gaza’s main towns and the coastal road.

Most importantly, Hamas gave up its demand that Israel agree to a permanent end to the war at the start of the deal’s first phase. This will keep the pressure on Hamas to deliver. Mr Trump will no doubt remain keenly involved. He has pledged to “work closely with Israel and our allies to make sure Gaza NEVER again becomes a terrorist safe haven”. The deal will put pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, particularly from the right-wing elements of the government who wanted more.

In Australia, the deal gives the Albanese government a circuit breaker to clearly refocus on what is the bigger game in the Middle East. This is the defeat of Hamas and the need for a two-state solution. Anthony Albanese has given some welcome clarity about what is needed for this to progress. In comments after the deal was announced on Thursday (Australian time) the Prime Minister ruled out formally recognising a Palestinian state before the next election, signalling he will only back such a move if terror group Hamas plays no future role in the Middle East. “Hamas is the enemy of the Palestinian people, not just the enemy of the state of Israel,” Mr Albanese said. He said Australia had consistently been part of the international call for a ceasefire and release of hostages.

He was direct in his condemnation of Hamas. “Australia remains unequivocal in our condemnation of Hamas’s atrocities on 7 October, and its ongoing acts of terror,” Mr Albanese said. “There must be no role for Hamas in the future governance of Gaza. Any future Palestinian state must not be in a position to threaten Israel’s security.” He said Australia would continue working with the international community towards a two-state solution – a Palestinian state and the state of Israel, living side by side in peace and security within internationally recognised borders. “We hope it will allow the Palestinian people the opportunity to rebuild, reform their governance and pursue self-determination,” Mr Albanese said.

The government must also use the ceasefire to calm domestic tensions over the issue. As we reported on Thursday, global research has found that Australia is experiencing a surge in anti-Jewish sentiment that is among the worst in comparable Western democracies. An international study by the Anti-Defamation League, conducted by market researcher Ipsos, found that Australia’s anti-Semitic and anti-Jewish attitudes were rising at alarming rates, coupled with recent attacks. Thankfully, a majority of citizens recognised the seriousness of the issue and would back governmental action. But the research found that 20 per cent of Australians held an “elevated level of anti-Semitic attitudes” – worse than in Britain, the US, France, Germany and New Zealand – compared with 14 per cent a decade ago, which was ­underpinned domestically by a “small, emboldened minority” amid a global uptick in anti-Semitism among the world’s youth. The results are proof of the damage done by allowing demonstrations to run unchecked through our tertiary institutions as well as the weak resolve of law enforcement and the judiciary on the issue.

Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus is visiting Israel as part of efforts to normalise what has become a fractured relationship with what has been our most important ally in the region. Mr Dreyfus has met with his counterpart, Justice Minister Yariv Levin, and two relatives of Israelis held hostage by Hamas in Gaza. In a statement before the meeting, Mr Dreyfus underscored Australia’s enduring friendship with Israel, while advocating for the immediate release of hostages, a ceasefire, increased humanitarian aid to Gaza and a two-state solution.

Australia played no significant role in the ceasefire negotiations but certainly made things worse domestically. It must now get firmly behind the US and Israel in pushing for the defeat of Hamas and building conditions for a two-state solution and lasting peace. The message to the anti-Semitic forces unleashed must be made loud and clear. They must stop their evil distortions and actions or face the full force of the law.