CCP will like PM’s comments

The shortcomings of defence spending under the Albanese government, highlighted by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Cost of Defence report, are too serious for Australians to ignore. But China, undertaking the largest military build-up since World War II, will be pleased that Anthony Albanese brushed off the report the morning after it surfaced. As Ben Packham wrote, the report, written by former Home Affairs deputy secretary Mark Ablong, warned that other Indo-Pacific ­nations were rearming “much faster than us”, with China’s military expansion raising the “real possibility” of a regional or global armed conflict in the next five years. Instead of complaining that ASPI should “have a look at themselves”, the Prime Minister missed an opportunity to level with the public about the hard budgetary choices ahead to secure the nation’s future in an increasingly hostile region and time.

The March budget, the report notes, had left defence spending at about 2 per cent of GDP. Long-term programs such as AUKUS are essential. But AUKUS will not deliver a meaningful nuclear-powered submarine force for about a decade, and the first of the navy’s Hunter-class frigates is due to enter service in the mid-2030s. In parallel with long-term investments, the government must also look to immediate capabilities to overcome limited munitions stockpiles, a shortage of missile defence systems and long-range weapons. Immediate action was needed, ASPI said: “Australia’s current strategic environment demands the rapid adoption of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, hypersonic weapons, drones and directed energy systems.” Personnel shortages were impairing the ADF’s ability to crew ships, maintain equipment and sustain operations.

Mr Albanese did not appreciate such frankness. Nor does China, which has had the think tank in its sights since November 2020 when it listed Australian government funding of ASPI among its 14 “grievances” handed out to media by China’s embassy in Canberra. In December last year, an inquiry by former DFAT secretary Peter Varghese recommended that ASPI face more intense government scrutiny of its research agenda and potential funding cuts. Former ASPI executive director Peter Jennings warned the government to be “very careful it doesn’t deliver China a victory by reducing scope for think tanks to make public comment in Australia”. ASPI must not fall silent. Its director, Justin Bassi, has pushed back against Mr Albanese’s attack on its independence. ASPI was set up, he said, “to deliver the hard truths to the government of the day, regardless of who’s in power”. Its charter requires it to provide alternative advice to government and increase public understanding and discussion. That responsibility has never mattered more.