Cautious hope in Afghanistan

After 18 years of interminable conflict in Afghanistan, hopes surrounding the seven-day “reduction of violence” goodwill truce Donald Trump has agreed with the Taliban are clear. According to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, if the agreement holds it will be followed on Saturday by a historic signing of “a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire and the future political road map for Afghanistan”. An immediate start would be made on the drawdown of US troops from 13,000 to 8600 in the following 135 days.

After protracted negotiations in Doha, US officials regard the plan as the best hope for years in a war-torn nation racked by violence for 40 years, dating back to the mujaheddin and the ignominious defeat they inflicted on Soviet forces. But as the US President seeks political advantages from bringing troops home ahead of the November election, he should not forget Barack Obama’s grave mistake in Iraq in 2011 when he rushed for the exits to get all US troops out for electoral reasons. The result was the growth of Islamic State, the caliphate and the escalation of Islamist terror.

In the agreement to be signed, the Taliban reportedly will renounce its longstanding links to al-Qa’ida and other terror groups. Talks on Afghanistan’s future will be convened between the Taliban and a committee to include members of the Afghan government and civic leaders.

Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani, recently re-elected in a bitterly disputed election, supports the plan. But just as there are doubts about the Taliban leadership’s goodwill and its ability to control thousands of committed jihadists, there are also serious doubts about the capacity and discipline of the Afghan army, despite years of training by the US and its allies such as Australia. Even some of Mr Trump’s close allies fear potential chaos following an early withdrawal of US forces. Should the Taliban resume its push to retake control of Afghanistan and re-establish its terrorist-supporting dictatorship, Mr Trump must be prepared to halt the drawdown.