Caution, research key to avoiding virus pandemic

The World Health Organisation’s declaration of a global emergency as the coronavirus called 2019CoV continues to spread underlines the need for public health responses that err on the side of caution. This is only the sixth time the WHO has declared such an emergency. With 10,000 people diagnosed around the world so far, including nine cases in Australia, and more than 200 deaths, all in China, complacency is not an option. At this stage the 2 per cent death rate is relatively moderate compared with the 9.6 per cent death rate associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2002-03. Two factors, however, make the coronavirus unusually sinister. First, overseas scientists believe it can be spread by people without flu-like symptoms, including fever. And second, Australian scientists cite experience in pigs to suggest 2019CoV could become more potent as it evolves.

As the virus spreads, and until a better diagnostic method, a foolproof treatment, a vaccine and greater knowledge are available, the Morrison government’s decision to isolate evacuees from the Chinese epicentre, Wuhan, on Christmas Island, 2600km northwest of Perth, is prudent. No empty hospital of that size is available on the mainland. Secure facilities on Christmas Island are well maintained and medical support will be provided. Britain and other governments also plan to quarantine evacuees. Under the circumstances, complaints about Australia’s strategy by Anthony Albanese, Christmas Island mayor Gordon Thomson and the Australian Medical Association are shortsighted. Mr Thomson’s claims about the island becoming a “leper colony” are ridiculous — the facilities were paid for by taxpayers and are there to be used. The government is awaiting the green light from China to evacuate Australians stranded in Wuhan and logistics of the operation are being worked out with Qantas; it should happen as quickly as practical, preferably this weekend.

Sensible precautions are under way within Australia. On Friday, the Health Department warned that anyone who had visited Hubei province in China must isolate themselves in their home for the next 14 days unless seeking medical care. Schools, universities and major employers have advised anyone who has visited or transited through China, Hong Kong or Macau to isolate themselves for 14 days. Big employers have suspended travel to China. Given Australia’s close ties with China, the economic cost of the virus will damage two of our largest export industries — education and tourism — and jobs. China and Hong Kong combined are Australia’s largest source of inbound tourists, with more than 1.7 million visits last year. Almost 150,000 of Australia’s half-million international students are from mainland China and 700,000 Australians visited China last year. Our nation’s Chinese restaurants are suffering falloffs in revenue of 40 per cent or more. As Jamie Walker wrote on Saturday, the degrees of separation that once provided early protection against pandemics have broken down. Our interconnected planet, for all its advantages, leaves more people vulnerable to such an outbreak. Hong Kong researchers believe the virus was carried by bats to a market in Wuhan, where animals caught in the wild are sold for food alongside meat and seafood.

If the crisis is to be solved quickly scientific breakthroughs will be vital. Australian scientists, who have been at the forefront of medical research for years, are leading the way. On Wednesday, the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity in Melbourne announced it had grown the coronavirus from a patient sample. That achievement could be a game changer for diagnosis and is expected to be used to generate an antibody test, to allow detection in patients who have not displayed symptoms and were unaware they had the virus. That is critical if cases such as that of the man who flew into Melbourne from Wuhan on January 22, unaware he had the virus, and who boarded a Tigerair flight to the Gold Coast five days later are to be avoided. By that stage, unwittingly, he may have infected others in his tour group. Passengers sitting near him in the cabin were exposed, as were hotel staff and others who served him along the way; likewise, possibly, people they encountered and their children.

China, to its credit, shared the virus’s genome sequence, allowing the Doherty Institute to grow the virus. Given China’s closed culture, it is not yet clear whether Chinese authorities moved as quickly or efficiently as possible to contain the crisis; the WHO believes they did and has praised China’s efforts. The SARS outbreak 17 years ago was covered up until the evidence could no longer be hidden. This weekend, when millions of people are on the move after Chinese New Year celebrations, will be a stern test. From Australia’s perspective, as the virus unfolds, containment and caution must be the priorities of governments, institutions and the general population.