Carbon neutral scramble overshadows climate action

Despite new figures showing Australia will meet its 2030 Paris Agreement targets, the Morrison government is under pressure to declare that Australia will be carbon neutral by 2050. The carbon neutral target has been adopted by state governments and has become an article of faith among climate change campaigners. A target has been adopted by 126 countries covering 51 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, and it is likely the issue will continue to dog the Morrison government in the way not ratifying the Kyoto Protocol was an ongoing distraction for the Howard administration.

Not declaring a 2050 target leaves an easy mark for the federal opposition, just as John Howard’s refusal to ratify Kyoto did for Kevin Rudd. But so far, the Morrison government is sticking with Australia’s traditional position of not promising something it does not know how to deliver. Australia’s official position is to be carbon neutral sometime in the second half of the century. Other nations have not been so shy.

As the UN Emissions Gap report shows, many nations have been quick to talk a big game on carbon neutrality but slow to deliver on substance. The report says the growing number of countries committing to net-zero emissions goals by mid-century is the most significant climate change policy development of the year. But it says there is an inconsistency between the emission levels implied by current policies and those necessary for achieving net-zero emissions by the middle of the century.

It appears some countries have used a carbon neutral pledge to distract from a lack of action in nearer timeframes, with most countries’ pledges not sufficient to meet the Paris 2030 goals, let alone 2050. Australia was not singled out in the UN report but was judged line ball to achieving its 2030 target, which itself will fall short of what is required for the Paris Agreement goals. The report was prepared before the latest official figures that showed Australia was only 56 million tonnes short of hitting its 2030 target without using Kyoto carry-over credits.

Despite the disapproval heaped on the government, Australia’s record comparative to similar countries has not been that bad. On a per person basis, Australia is deploying renewables 25 per cent faster than Europe’s four largest economies combined and 10 times faster than the global average. Australia’s emissions reduction efforts have compared favourably with like nations on the latest available figures. Between 2005 and 2018, Australia cut absolute emissions by 13 per cent compared with 15 per cent in Germany, 8 per cent in Japan, 1 per cent in New Zealand, 10 per cent in the US and 0.1 per cent in Canada. On a per capita basis, Australia cut emissions by 29 per cent compared with 16 per cent in Germany, 7 per cent in Japan, 16 per cent in NZ, 19 per cent in the US and 13 per cent in Canada.

On December 4, the British government announced an increased 2030 target, but Britain’s Climate Change Committee has said delivering a net-zero target by 2050 is technically feasible but highly challenging.

The big issue on emissions, however, remains what happens in the developing world. Big emissions cuts in the developed world are quickly being overshadowed by rising emissions in Asia, where coal developments continue apace. China, the world’s biggest emitter, has said it will try to become carbon neutral by 2060 but has given no details on how this might happen.

Australia can expect more pressure at a global online climate meeting on Saturday where nations are being urged to promise to do more. And there has been a lot of talk that Australia will be further isolated on climate change action under a Joe Biden presidency in the US.

But Australia has worked closely and well with the US on the issue across administrations. A close reading of Mr Biden’s plans show they align well with Australia’s commitment to a technology-led solution. As the UN Emissions Gap report demonstrates, Australia is not so far out of step with substantive global action as many would suggest.