BOM facing more heavy weather

The Bureau of Meteorology is an $865m-a-year public institution that holds a privileged position in a nation obsessed with the weather. Taxpayers are entitled to expect value for money and citizens the best possible assessment of what nature might bring. Despite a deluge of information, far too often the BOM’s forecasts have been found wanting. They can be either too vague or completely off the mark.

Many farmers are entitled to feel let down by the hype that surrounded calls that Australia was entering an El Nino weather pattern this year and to expect drier-than-usual conditions. Those who sold stock in anticipation have endured heavy losses. To be fair to the BOM, a hysterical and ill-informed media has allowed climate alarmism to infect reporting of what should be routine weather events. But the BOM is facing valid criticism for not anticipating the extreme rainfall that accompanied Tropical Cyclone Jasper in North Queensland in recent weeks. It was a repeat of its inept performance during the back-to-back flooding of Lismore in 2022. Gold Coast mayor Tom Tate said the BOM’s delayed warnings of deadly storms on Christmas night were “unforgivable”. The quality of information provided by the BOM, and the way in which it was collected and assessed, must be properly explored. It is more than a decade since the federal government’s Munro Review assessed the bureau’s capacity to respond to future extreme weather and natural disaster events, and to provide seasonal forecasting services.

The BOM’s decision to emphasise that information on its app and website may not be accurate and should not be relied upon confirms it knows what is at stake. To gain access, users of the app must confirm they know the information is “subject to a degree of uncertainty”. The bureau does not warrant the information’s “accuracy, currency, completeness, quality, reliability or suitability for any purpose”.

The BOM still says it does a good job. But given its standing and unwillingness to co-operate freely with those who want to quality-check its records and how information is collected, it is time its methods and priorities were put to a rigorous and independent test.