Biden’s cancelled visit lets down Indo-Pacific allies

Amid forecasts of “catastrophic consequences” that could “bring down the entire international financial system” if the US debt ceiling crisis remains unresolved, Joe Biden’s decision not to attend the Quad leaders summit in Sydney has scuppered the forum. US allies understandably are disappointed and anxious about the cancellation of a summit regarded as crucial in countering intensifying Chinese and Russian aggression. As former intelligence chief Richard Maude told The Australian, “turning up is half the battle” when it comes to Indo-Pacific diplomacy.

The consequences of the debt ceiling crisis could indeed be dire. University of Virginia public policy professor Raymond Scheppach, a former deputy-director of the US Congressional Budget Office, warns that failure to lift the ceiling “could devastate the world gross domestic product and create mass unemployment”. As alarming as that prospect is to US allies, the threat to global security posed by increasing Chinese and Russian malevolence, especially in this region, is of prime strategic significance. That is what the Sydney Quad summit – bringing together Mr Biden, Anthony Albanese, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi – was set to deal with.

In announcing the cancellation of the summit following a call from Mr Biden, the Prime Minister said the four leaders instead would be “having a discussion” when they were in Hiroshima for this weekend’s G7 summit. Given the escalating threat posed by China and Russia and the value of the Quad as a pre-eminent component in the architecture being established to counter their influence, a meeting on the sidelines of the G7 is unlikely to come close to what the Sydney meeting might have achieved. Nor will the meeting in Hiroshima offset the insufferable smugness in Moscow and Beijing over the enforced cancellation of a Quad summit because of a deepening financial crisis faced by the government of the largest economy and leader of the free world. The most critical point, however, is that the Quad’s future not be compromised.

While there is little Mr Albanese and other Quad leaders can do about Mr Biden’s decision to rush back to Washington immediately after the G7 summit, they must leave him in no doubt about their unfulfilled expectations. They need a firm assurance that he will reschedule his trip to Australia and Papua New Guinea, which he was due to visit before coming to Sydney.

Mr Biden has much ground to make up over a lost opportunity to strengthen ties with US allies across the Asia-Pacific region. The President’s stopover in Port Moresby promised to be a timely expression of Washington’s support for the island states of the South Pacific that are increasingly the target of bold Chinese strategic subversion. By not turning up in PNG he has handed an easy win to Beijing. Mr Biden also has lost an opportunity, in addressing parliament in Canberra, to back in support for AUKUS.

As he begins his campaign for re-election next year, it is no surprise Mr Biden put domestic political considerations ahead of global commitments. That is what US political leaders have always done and what politicians everywhere can be counted on to do. In response to the cancellation, former Labor foreign minister Bob Carr warned the future direction of the US in world affairs was increasingly unpredictable. A second term for Mr Biden, he said, could see the US President suffering from “frailty and cognitive decline”, with appearances at major forums and events left to the “unsteady hand of (Kamala) Harris”.

Since 1976 there have been 22 shutdowns of the US government because of the lack of a federal budget. According to Professor Scheppach, while they were all “very disruptive and damaged the economy and employment, they pale in comparison to the potential effects of failing to lift the US debt ceiling, which could be catastrophic”.

The US has never previously experienced a default caused by a failure to raise the debt ceiling, which has been raised 78 times since 1917 and currently stands at $US31.4 trillion ($47.2 trillion). There have been close shaves before, generally after Republicans gained control of the House of Representatives and wanted to embarrass an incumbent president by demanding budget cuts and policy changes.

The US Treasury has announced that the nation could default as soon as June 1, with vast consequences for pensions and soldiers’ and federal workers’ pay. Failure to achieve a compromise would potentially plunge the US into recession and end Mr Biden’s hopes of a second term. He must be under no illusion, however, about the seriousness of letting down the Quad at the last minute. His decision leaves the US with vast ground to make up with its allies.