Biden hovers as the world awaits election outcome

Joe Biden’s mantra that there will be neither red states nor blue states, just one United States, should he emerge as victor from the knife-edge presidential election, rolls off the tongue easily. But it would be a lot for him to live up to in the event he is inaugurated in January as the 46th US president. His nation’s deep divisions are crying out for healing. But there is little in his long political career or his insipid, confused campaign to inspire confidence that he could deliver on that ambitious vision.

If the former vice-president secures a narrow win after counting and legal action by the Trump camp are resolved, Mr Biden will need to recognise the legitimate concerns of tens of millions of Americans who embraced Donald Trump. For all his unorthodox, abrasive qualities, Mr Trump appeals to millions of patriotic, hardworking Americans who watched as their values were denigrated, their jobs exported and their country’s history and ideals sneered at by some of its privileged, high-profile citizens. In Mr Trump they found someone with a loud voice who expressed their fears and frustrations. This newspaper always recognised the President’s flaws. He is intemperate, volatile, impatient and provocative. But his promise to “drain the swamp” inside the Washington Beltway particularly resonated among working-class suburban and rural voters across the US. Such citizens have felt increasingly excluded and estranged by an entrenched ruling elite and most of the mainstream media. Not only are many US newspapers and broadcasters out of touch with grassroots concerns about jobs, power prices and the cancel culture encroaching on education, most of the media have shown no interest in such matters. Mr Trump can draw satisfaction at having inspired millions of disenfranchised Americans to re-engage with their political system.

A potential flashpoint reared its head on Thursday, Australian time. The US formally left the Paris Agreement in accord with the 12 months’ notice Mr Trump gave a year ago. Mr Biden tweeted that he would rejoin the agreement on his first day in office. The Australian supports the agreement as a means to bring about action by all nations, including the heaviest greenhouse gas emitting industrial powerhouses, against global warming. At the same time, Mr Biden’s pledge to “transition from the oil industry” is potentially problematic for many in red and blue states. His goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 is highly ambitious. Much will depend on technological advances. But fracking has freed the US from dependence on imported energy. It boosted prosperity in oil states such as Pennsylvania and Texas. Even house Democrats in oil-producing states Oklahoma and New Mexico were quick to distance themselves from Mr Biden’s remarks on oil during the second debate.

When the presidential election and the make-up of congress is settled, political attention in the US must switch to containing the coronavirus pandemic and to economic rebuilding. The world, including Australia, needs the largest economy to fire and regain strength. The US falling into prolonged recession or, worse, a depression would drag down much of the world with it, especially as Europe continues battling the ravages of COVID-19. After taking a heavy hit earlier in the year, US gross domestic product surged by a record 33 per cent last quarter. The White House administration and congress must prioritise promoting confidence, investment, production, spending, exports and jobs growth. In this environment, Mr Biden’s plans to increase corporate taxes from 21 per cent to 28 per cent and payroll taxes would risk creating disincentives. US voters have hedged their bets. If Mr Biden sought to impose hard-left, high-taxing policies and over-regulation of business, the Republican-dominated Senate would be well placed to keep him in check. On the culture wars and social issues, the conservative-dominated Supreme Court, one of Mr Trump’s enduring legacies, should help prevent the US straying too far from mainstream values. The court is now beyond the reach of ideologues who aspired to stack it with liberals.

Law and order will be a prime concern of many Americans in the coming term. The issue also will be watched by the rest of the world. Despite support among far-left Democrats for the ridiculous notion of defunding the police, a Biden administration would need to act to reassure mainstream Americans that their safety was a priority. The new president would need to plant his standard firmly in the centre and unconditionally reject the mob rule that has been allowed to take root in Democratic strongholds such as Portland, Oregon. Unity without personal safety is a hollow promise. Violence in the streets must end, regardless of what grievance it purports to represent.

Foreign policy gained scant attention in the campaign. But Mr Biden carries much baggage from the erosion of US authority during the Obama years. Facing an emboldened China and resurgent religious wars in Europe, he would need shrewdness and steel. Mr Trump’s progress in Middle East peace deals between Arab states and Israel must be built on.

But before such issues are explored, claims that Democratic machines in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania sought to steal the election late on the first day of counting, when things were not going their way, must be dealt with thoroughly and transparently, and must be resolved. The challenges facing any president are momentous. Any lingering doubts about his legitimacy would destabilise the US and be bad for the world.