Bernie Sanders, an odd frontrunner

Bernie Sanders’s convincing victory in Nevada’s caucuses — following Iowa and New Hampshire — will further boost his status as the Democrats’ frontrunner to take on Donald Trump. Senator Sanders’s win in Nevada, the first state with a significant share of non-white voters, added momentum to the 78-year-old socialist’s campaign ahead of Democratic primaries in 15 states in the next two weeks. At the same time, it will increase the nervousness of party leaders who believe a Sanders nomination will doom the party to defeat in November. A new Wall Street Journal/ NBC poll shows the senator has a four-point lead in a theoretical national contest against the President. It also shows former vice-president Joe Biden, the party’s leading moderate, with an 8 per cent lead against Mr Trump and outsider Mike Bloomberg with a 7 per cent lead.

But Senator Sanders’s 47 per cent share of the Nevada vote left Mr Biden trailing on 20 per cent, with Pete Buttigieg on 15 per cent. Senator Sanders won among all groups — men, women, Hispanics, non-Hispanics, those with and without college degrees, and union and non-union members. He said he was riding a “multigenerational, multiracial” wave that “is going to sweep this country”. That remains to be seen. Establishment Democrats fear that if he has a strong showing in states such as California on Super Tuesday (March 3) he will be unstoppable. Their concerns are justified. Choosing a socialist espousing high-tax, Jeremy Corbyn-style policies would carry immense risks for the Democrats in a nation that is capitalist to the core. Senator Sanders, 78, also is recovering from a major heart attack in October.

It remains difficult to believe he will be the Democrats’ nominee. But as Mr Trump showed four years ago, never say never. Prevailing wisdom is that Senator Sanders’s policies make him unelectable. But Mr Trump was seen as unelectable in 2016. His approval rating has suffered little damage and possibly gained ground since his impeachment trial. His approval rating is 47 per cent, behind Barack Obama and George W. Bush who were both at 50 per cent when they were seeking election at this point. Mr Trump’s ratings on the economy are higher, however.