Behind the Chinese pomp, regional security is at stake

Behind the pomp and ceremony at the Great Hall of the People and the symbolism of Anthony Albanese retracing the footsteps of Labor giant Gough Whitlam 50 years ago, the Prime Minister’s visit to Chinese President Xi Jinping was constructive. It was in Australia’s interests that the fractured relationship be improved. Mr Albanese and the Chinese dictator are on speaking terms that look affable enough, at least outwardly. The resumption of a normal trading relationship, which China should never have damaged as a means of coercion, is well advanced to the benefit of both nations.

While Mr Albanese hopes to continue in the “positive spirit” of Mr Whitlam, he did not go overboard. Asked if he trusted Mr Xi, Mr Albanese was circumspect: “He has never said anything to me that has not been done.” And that was “a positive way that you have to start off dealing with people”. Importantly, Mr Albanese raised the plight of Australian academic Yang Hengjun with Mr Xi. Dr Yang, who is now bedridden, has been held in appalling conditions in jail in China since January 2019, without sentence.

As Will Glasgow writes in Wednesday’s paper, the bilateral relationship has not entered “some post-friction fantasy” after two days. The encounters were positive, however, and should continue. English language press reports in China suggest the Chinese Communist Party was satisfied, not only with Mr Xi’s meeting with Mr Albanese but with his encounters with leaders from Cuba, Serbia and South Africa on the same day. “Xi stresses mutual understanding” was China Daily’s banner headline.

As Mr Albanese acknowledged, he and Mr Xi “come with different political systems, very different values … and different interests … He is the leader of a different nation with different interests.” That includes stepping up its interests in the Asia-Pacific region, where nations that have switched allegiance from Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China have received immediate rewards through development grants and concessional loans worth tens of millions of dollars. As a result, some have found themselves deeply indebted to China.

Tonga, for example, has a public debt exposure to China running at 41 per cent of gross domestic product. AidData, a research laboratory at William and Mary university in the US, has tracked and analysed all Chinese funding into the Pacific between 2000 and 2021. Coinciding with Mr Albanese’s China visit, a new AidData report shows that in a region that is strategically important to China as well as it is to Australia, the US and the Western alliance, China has funnelled $US15bn ($23.1bn) into the Pacific in the past 21 years. Australia’s nearest neighbour, Papua New Guinea, was by far the largest beneficiary of Chinese finance, securing $US7.1bn, about half the total. The second-largest recipient was the Marshall Islands, which maintains close diplomatic relations with the US. It received $US5.1bn across the same period.

Engagement with the region is vital to Australia, which is why Mr Albanese, immediately after his visit to China and his recent Washington visit, is right to attend this week’s Pacific Islands Forum in the Cook Islands. Doing so will carry a price tag, especially if Mr Albanese seeks to lock in regional support for his government’s bid to host the COP31 climate conference in 2026. Pacific Island countries are likely to push Australia to increase climate funding to the region and to commit to more ambitious climate policies. Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown, who will chair the PIF, also has voiced concern about the AUKUS agreement as regards “increased surveillance (by) nuclear-powered submarines through the Pacific” as nuclear-powered submarines from the US and Britain increase visits to Australia under the pact. Island nations have nothing to fear from AUKUS, which will make the region more secure.