Battlelines drawn in the north

In the footsteps of One Nation Mark I, Clive Palmer, Bob Katter and other populists, mavericks are again set to shape Queensland’s political future. As Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk prepares to call an election, she will be encouraged by today’s Newspoll. On the two-party preferred vote, it shows her minority Labor government on 53 per cent, leading the Liberal National Party on 47 per cent. But in a vast state where political swings are normally uneven, the picture on the ground is more complicated. Four new seats will be contested, one of which, on the northern Gold Coast, could be line ball.

Then there is Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Mark II, which Newspoll shows on a 15 per cent primary vote. Depending on the distribution of its support, it could win seats. Through preferences, it is likely to determine results in marginal outer metropolitan and regional seats including some held by the Palaszczuk government in Townsville and other coastal centres.

Greens preferences invariably favour Labor by about 80 per cent to 20 per cent. One Nation’s preference flows, however, will be unpredictable but could favour the LNP slightly. Fortunately for political stability in Queensland, One Nation’s current backing is well short of its 1998 high point when it won 23 per cent of the primary vote and 11 seats, before imploding shortly afterwards. The poor showing of the West Australian Liberals and One Nation in March will deter similar preference deals in Queensland. Ms Palaszczuk, however, will push the claim that a vote for the Coalition is a vote for One Nation — a line the LNP must combat.

More importantly, the campaign must determine the future of the state economy. After the surprise defeat of Campbell Newman, whose government had the right strategy, including asset leases, to repay debt, Ms Palaszczuk and her team, dominated by public sector unions, were not prepared for office. In three years, Labor has achieved little other than reinflating the public service by 15,000 positions, sending wage costs soaring well above inflation and reversing the savings of the Newman government. Queensland’s debt is set to exceed $80 billion in 2021, and the government lacks a strategy to pay it off. Contrary to Treasurer Curtis Pitt’s claims, shuffling debt on to state-owned corporations and raiding superannuation and long-service holdings is no repayment plan. Labor is also demolishing energy security by burdening Queenslanders with a renewable energy target of 50 per cent by 2030.

Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls, a strong treasurer in the Newman government, must use his economic skills to campaign on a blueprint for boosting private sector jobs, growth and prosperity while reducing the reach of government and its vast bureaucracy. Unfortunately, he has boxed himself in by ruling out asset sales or leases and forced public service redundancies. He, too, needs a plan for paying down debt.