Backing our values while engaging a prickly Beijing

An Indian ship with 160,000 tonnes of Australian coking coal bound for Japan has been held captive in Chinese waters. India and China have their own problems, but the cargo is also a credible pointer to Australia’s worsening relations with our No 1 trade partner. China’s displeasure with Australia’s sovereign policy decisions has been made crystal clear. Imposts and restrictions, probably of a punitive nature, have been announced on our exports of barley, beef and coal. Wine and international students are also vulnerable markets, and Beijing is developing new African mines for iron ore. At the moment China relies heavily on Australia for supply of this strategic mineral substance. Things probably will get worse before they get better and we will learn the price of our independence.

Former politician and veteran China hand Warwick Smith says Beijing’s stance has shifted from “assertive to aggressive”. Former ASIO chief Dennis Richardson says he believes Australia must expect to stay “in the doghouse for a good two to three years”. A change in the US presidency is unlikely to bring a quick fix. Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and former foreign minister Bob Carr are among commentators who have suggested Australia earned Beijing’s ire by seeking to appease the supposedly Sinophobic Donald Trump. But when Trump administration rhetoric went too far, Australia distanced itself. And from China’s point of view, Australia first earned disapproval well before Mr Trump took office. In 2013, we stood up for international law and our regional neighbours following Beijing’s unilateral and destabilising assertion of claims in the South China Sea. This represented nothing new in Australia’s principled diplomacy. It was a response to the gradual ratcheting up of geopolitical rhetoric and power projection by President Xi Jinping. In the same way, Mr Turnbull’s decision to exclude Huawei from our 5G network reflected our sovereign interests, had nothing to do with pleasing Mr Trump and set the pace for Five Eyes nations. As for laws against foreign interference, any Australian government would act in a principled way to safeguard our institutions.

Sometimes our politicians and diplomats may not get the messaging quite right, but it’s clear that Australia is not anti-China. It’s vital to make a sharp distinction between our objection to aspects of Beijing’s behaviour and positive people-to-people ties involving the Chinese people. We have to be especially alert to the predicament of Chinese-Australians, many with direct experience of authoritarian pressure and vulnerable because of their personal and business links to the mainland. They have a part to play in maintaining good bilateral relations at as many levels as possible.

Seeking to diversify export markets makes sense. For years we’ve been told that trade and investment with Southeast Asian nations have been underdone, and it may be that sudden uncertainty in China leads to more energetic cultivation of opportunities elsewhere. But this will not be easy or swift. China remains a huge market and we should keep trying to leverage our record as a reliable supplier of Chinese needs. Nor should we assume that there is no internal doubt about the wisdom of Mr Xi’s approach. Supposed to enhance the regime’s prestige, it has led to plummeting levels of trust in China around the world. The postwar global order is in transition, and China might find that a less aggressive stance will bring it the security, prosperity and respect it seeks without riding roughshod over others.