AUKUS review gives Trump new leverage over Albanese

The world is learning there is no such thing as certainty with Donald Trump, and that is presumably exactly as he likes it. Anthony Albanese might have been war-gaming his potential first face-to-face meeting with the US President in coming days along the lines of tariffs and trade. But Mr Trump has upped the stakes by throwing the future of the AUKUS defence pact into the mix. A new review will ask the question: Does AUKUS fit into Mr Trump’s America First doctrine?

If nothing else, the AUKUS review gives Mr Trump a powerful new point of leverage over Australia. In many ways, Mr Albanese has no one to blame but himself. He has allowed the federal government’s positioning to depart ways from the United States across a broad front. Most significantly, he has been overly dismissive of US attempts to encourage a commitment to higher defence spending both before and after the federal election.

Mr Albanese has no reason to be subservient or obsequious in his dealings with Mr Trump, and should not be. But he would be wise not to unnecessarily provoke the President through the pursuit of other ideologically-driven foreign policy manoeuvres from which Australia has nothing practically to gain. It remains to be seen whether the US administration’s review of the AUKUS pact turns out to be as ominous as the Pentagon’s announcement suggests it may be. Defence Minister Richard Marles insists there is not a problem. Mr Marles’ confidence is hopefully well founded. But it is imperative the Albanese government recognises the dangers looming ahead and wastes no time in getting full support for AUKUS in Washington firmly back on track.

One warning sign is that the initiative for the review has reportedly come from the Trump administration’s foremost AUKUS sceptic, Under Secretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby. In London last year Mr Colby said he would have been “quite sceptical” about signing off on the AUKUS deal. As we reported on Thursday, Mr Colby has previously said that Pillar I of AUKUS, which involves the US selling nuclear-powered submarines to Australia in the early 2030s, is “very problematic”. He said Pillar II of AUKUS, which includes military intelligence sharing and the development of artificial intelligence, was “great, no problem”. Former Australian ambassador to the US Joe Hockey says he believes the US launched a review of the AUKUS pact as a result of the tensions between Canberra and Washington over defence spending. At last month’s Shangri-la Dialogue Mr Hegseth sought to persuade Mr Marles that Australia should increase defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP instead of the 2.3 per cent the Albanese government has promised by the middle of the next decade. That is likely a key aspect of the Trump administration’s rethink and re-evaluation of the entire AUKUS project. The Pentagon’s announcement spoke of Mr Hegseth’s determination to ensure “that allies step up fully to do their part for collective defence, and that the defence-industrial base is meeting our needs”. It has doubtless not helped that in his National Press Club address on Tuesday Mr Albanese appeared lukewarm about Mr Hegseth’s prompt.

It was followed up by Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s gratuitously foolish action on Wednesday when she aligned Australia with four other countries imposing sanctions on members of Israel’s democratically elected government. Senator Wong showed the Albanese government has a tin ear or is just unthinking when it comes to showing common sense in dealing with the uncertainties of the Trump administration.

Such slights (including previous scathing remarks about Mr Trump made by Mr Albanese and ambassador Kevin Rudd) are not forgotten by someone with Mr Trump’s temperament. It is no wonder, given the Albanese government’s not always adroit handling of the relationship with Washington, that it is now confronted by not just an attempt to get tariff concessions from Washington, but also a full-blown review of the AUKUS pact that, if it goes the wrong way, could have a profound effect on just about every presumption made about Australia’s future defence capability and the defence of the Indo-Pacific region.

The challenges facing Mr Albanese at the G7 in the Canadian Rockies could not be greater. Australia will pay a heavy price if he fails to secure AUKUS’s future. And only China will be cheering.