AUKUS pact fine display of respect and understanding

The AUKUS defence pact between great allies defines, as a nation, our place in the world and our commitment to peace, stability and a rules-based order. Asked why the US had chosen Australia as a partner, President Joe Biden shot back: “They’re totally reliable.” Reliability is the bedrock of our international relationships – reliability in trade, in delivering on the global agreements we make and in joining with others to defend the values we share. Australia is recognised for saying what we mean and doing what we say. We have the respect of the world for standing up for what we believe in and refusing to bow to economic or diplomatic coercion.

The AUKUS partners – Australia, Britain and the US – see the agreement as a commitment to strengthen democracy and promote prosperity on a global scale. “Our common values, our shared vision, the more peaceful and prosperous future, unite us all across the Atlantic and the Pacific,” Mr Biden said when announcing the nuclear-powered submarine agreement on Tuesday. After his meeting with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Mr Biden said they had exchanged views on a range of global issues, including the challenges posed by China and the shared commitment to supporting peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. After meeting Anthony Albanese, Mr Biden said they had discussed enhancing co-operation through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue; support for a strong Pacific Islands Forum; reaffirmed their shared commitment to ASEAN centrality, and; resolved to confront climate change and to tackle challenges to regional stability, including economic coercion. They also discussed “the challenges posed by the People’s Republic of China”.

Mr Biden’s checklist demonstrates beyond doubt the US is back in the Indo-Pacific, a situation that is of great comfort and benefit to Australia, and due in no small measure to the diplomatic efforts we have applied in recent years. It is also a reflection of solidarity from the world’s great powers and a show of respect for Australia’s refusal to be cowed by trade sanctions and other marks of displeasure from China, our major trading partner, which, under Xi Jinping, has set out on a path of militarisation and outward projection in our region.

The AUKUS pact is the framework through which Australia reaffirms where it stands in the face of regional uncertainty. Through it, as foreign editor Greg Sheridan writes, if we end up with three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines and eight AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines we will emerge as one of the most powerful navies in the world. But it is a truly co-operative effort that greatly accelerates the deployment of naval resources into our region and builds them across time as a counterbalance to the rapid naval expansion of other nations. Along the way there will be greater personal engagement with the global pillars of democracy and the mutually beneficial sharing of effort, resources and technology. Under the terms of the AUKUS deal, the US will increase its regional rotation of nuclear-powered subs, providing an immediate capability and deterrent. Australia will buy three US-made Virginia-class subs with an option of two more, with the first arriving in 2033. Eight AUKUS-class submarines – based on a British design – will be built in Adelaide, with the first to be completed by 2042.

The cost is material but likely much less than the cost of not acting. In total, it is estimated to be between $268bn and $368bn out to the mid-2050s. Defence spending will have to rise by at least 0.15 per cent of gross domestic product from 2026-27 to pay for the program, on top of the already-forecast defence budget of about 2.2 per cent by the end of the decade. In the immediate term, the cost of the plan will hit the May budget, at $9bn across the forward estimates. This will be offset by $6bn that had been allocated to the now-cancelled Attack-class submarine program, and a further $3bn in savings from the wider defence budget, to be detailed in the upcoming Defence Strategic Review.

The Prime Minister said it was significant that the US had shared its nuclear technology for just the second time in its history, and that the deal also would rebuild manufacturing. “We see this very much as an economic plan,” he said. “Not just a defence and security plan.”

Scott Morrison, who as prime minister initiated the AUKUS agreement talks, said he had no doubt the deal would continue in a strong spirit of bipartisanship and national unity. He said the agreement was bigger than any one individual, party, government or partner nation.

Australia will continue to build good relations with all our neighbours and trading partners but also must face the reality of what is happening around us. Britain, in particular, is outspoken about the nature of the emerging threat to peace and stability. Speaking after details of the AUKUS agreement were confirmed, Mr Sunak named the actions of Russia and China, as well as the destabilising actions of North Korea and Iran, and said the rise of authoritarian states threatened to create a world defined by danger, disorder and division. He described AUKUS as the most significant multilateral defence partnership in generations that matched our enduring commitment to freedom and democracy with the most advanced military, scientific and technological capability.

In Beijing this week, Mr Xi told delegates at the National People’s Congress, where he was confirmed as President for a third term, that China would “build the people’s armed forces into a great wall of steel that is capable of effectively safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests”. He said: “Security is the bedrock of development, while stability is a prerequisite for prosperity.” On this last point, the AUKUS partners are in total agreement with Beijing. More than anything, the AUKUS pact is calculated to bolster security and maintain stability in our region by changing the strategic calculation in favour of peace.