Attack repelled, but Tehran puts Middle East on brink

At this stage, it proved a phony war, thanks to the combined military superiority of Israel, the US, the UK and the welcome contribution of Jordan in repelling the attack. On Sunday, the Israel Defence Forces announced that Iran’s effort in launching more than 300 cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and drones against the Jewish state is “over for now”. The attacks made little impact. Ninety-nine per cent were shot down in flight before they reached Israeli airspace. Damage was minimal. To its credit, Israel even protected Jerusalem’s al-Aqsa Mosque from destruction at the hands of Iran. That said, Tehran’s so-called Operation Truthful Promise, its first direct attack on Israel, was a historic escalation of the Gaza conflict, potentially with serious dangers for much of the world.

For all that, as Jonathan Spyer writes, the attack marks a moment of historic change, the point at which Tehran’s long campaign against the Jewish state left the realm of ambiguity and entered the overt stage. In confronting Israel head-on, the Islamist rulers of Iran have crossed a strategic Rubicon. After their dismal performance, they may now wish to return to their former preferred pattern of war by proxy. But Israel, with two proxy armies on its borders, may not allow it to do so. Since October 7, Israel has abandoned the idea of keeping its own responses largely to the covert realm. In targeting the Iranian controller of Iran’s proxy effort in Lebanon and Syria, General Mohammed Reza Zahedi, it signalled that rather than submit to slow bleeding by Iran’s proxies, it would strike back directly at Iran. It could be more inclined, from here, to confront its greatest enemy directly.

After weeks of sabre-rattling about a retaliatory attack for the April 1 Israeli airstrike that killed high-ranking Islamic Revolutionary Guards officers in Damascus to help Bashar al-Assad’s monstrous regime, it is a relief that Tehran’s much-vaunted counterstrike failed to achieve its principal goals. Making good on Joe Biden’s repeated pledge last week of “ironclad” and “unequivocal” support for Israel in the face of Iranian threats, Washington played a key role supporting Israel in defending itself against the weekend onslaught. So did the UK in mobilising warplanes to shoot down Iranian weapons. And so did Jordan. Claims by the Iranian Tasnim News Agency that a “four-pronged” assault was launched not only from Iran but by its proxies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen were vastly exaggerated.

Mr Biden, to his credit, led the way in pledging total US support for Israel, moving three warships into the region. They played a significant role in shooting down Iranian drones and missiles. Despite many questioning his commitment to Israel over the Gaza war, he warned Iran on the eve of the attack: “Let me say it again: ironclad. We’re going to do all we can to protect Israel’s security. Don’t.’’ Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin made similar unequivocal pledges. A senior US general, Erik Kurilla, head of the US Central Command, arrived in Israel to help defend the Jewish state. After weeks of bickering with Israel over its conduct of the war in Gaza, Iran’s attack appears, paradoxically, to have brought the Biden administration to its senses. US allies, including Australia, would do well to learn that constant carping over the tactics Israel is using in Gaza is playing into the hands of Hamas and its Iranian masters.

Until now, Iran has sought to obscure its involvement in Hamas-Israel conflict. But its weekend attack and acts of high-seas terrorism, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guards’ attack on an “Israel-linked” container ship, the Portuguese-flagged MCS Aries, in the Hormuz Strait at the weekend – in which they took 25 crew members hostage – is a major escalation in Tehran’s direct involvement in the war. The piracy underlined the threat posed to one of the world’s most important shipping channels. not just by the Yemen-based Houthi rebels, but by Iran itself. What that portends for global shipping is a serious concern.

The events demand resolute leadership from the US and its allies. It is to the credit of not just Mr Biden, but UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and even Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, that all expressed strong support and determination to help Israel. Anthony Albanese was slower out of the blocks but rightly labelled the escalation a grave threat to the security of Israel and its region. “It risks greater instability and devastation across the Middle East,’’ he said. “Australia continues to support regional security, including that of Israel.’’ Even UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, no friend of Israel’s, “strongly condemned” the attacks. He was “deeply alarmed about the very real danger of a devastating region-wide escalation’’ that could lead to major military confrontations on multiple fronts.

The world, not just Israel, is threatened by Iran’s blatant involvement in terrorism, directly and through its proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis. Its aim is to wipe Israel off the map and kill Jews everywhere. Since 1979 Tehran has called for the end of Israel – the “Little Satan” – as a Jewish state. But as Peter Jennings writes, the big strategic change in the Middle East over the past decade has been the growing alignment between Israeli and Sunni Arab interests: “In fact, Egypt, Jordan, the Gulf states (less Qatar), Saudi and most Sunni states will tacitly be hoping Israel hands Tehran a severe bloody nose.’’ When Iran launched its attack, nations heavily invested in Israel’s survival stepped up. After this onslaught, the civilised world needs to unite in support of Israel, and stop undermining the Jewish state’s fightback against the terrorism of Iran and its proxies.