ASIO steps up to beat new level of security fragility

In his sixth and most chilling threat assessment so far, ASIO director-general Mike Burgess has alerted Australians to unprecedented dangers, rating the nation’s future threat environment as more difficult than anything seen in at least 50 years. ASIO investigators have identified at least three countries plotting to harm people living in Australia. As the major geopolitical, economic, social and security challenges of the 1930s, 70s and 90s converged, Australia faced multifaceted threats, Mr Burgess said.

In 2024, for example, a hostile foreign intelligence service wanted to harm or kill one or more people on our soil. ASIO disrupted the Australian part of what was an international operation to eliminate critics of the foreign government – activists, journalists and ordinary citizens. The plotters were offshore, beyond the reach of Australian law. In another operation, a foreign intelligence service planned an “accident” to injure or kill an unsuspecting activist lured to a third country from Australia. Again, ASIO foiled the plot and stopped the travel.

Mr Burgess’s assessment, delivered in Canberra on Wednesday night, is a wake-up call about widespread and diverse threats ranging from a 12-year-old allegedly plotting to blow up a place of worship, to foreign services seeking to undermine public support for the AUKUS submarine project and the confidence of our allies. “We are getting closer to the threshold for high-impact sabotage,” the document warns. “ASIO assesses foreign regimes are growing more willing to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure to impede decision-making, damage war-fighting capabilities and sow social discord.” Cyber-enabled sabotage is also an acute concern. Cyber units from at least one foreign state routinely try to explore and exploit Australia’s critical infrastructure and mapping systems to lay down malware or maintain future access.

Several key points emerge. ASIO’s caseload of minors (which is 85 per cent male) is getting younger, with an average age of 15 when they are first subjected to investigations. Fewer than 17 per cent were born offshore. And extremists were “self-radicalising’’, often choosing blended belief systems. On the positive side, where engagement with extremism is found, vulnerable children can be and have been diverted from radicalisation, including some who advocated mass casualty attacks. The pattern of radicalisation also has changed, from a timeframe of months and years at the height of the threats posed by Islamic State and al-Qa’ida to one of days and weeks.

While ASIO said anti-Semitism had festered in Australia before the events of October 7, 2023, the drawn-out Gaza conflict had given it oxygen. Threats had transitioned from harassment and intimidation to targeting places of worship, communities and prominent figures, and ASIO was concerned that the attacks had not yet plateaued. Mr Burgess also noted that the war in Europe had prompted more aggressive Russian intelligence to target Ukraine’s supporters, including Australia, but China, conspicuously and interestingly, did not rate a mention by name.

Given that ASIO and its law enforcement partners have disrupted dozens of major terrorism plots across the past decade, including five in 2024, it is clear that good resourcing matters. As totalitarian regimes become more brazen and aggressive, close co-operation with overseas allies is clearly vital. The assessment gives several examples of successful co-operation, including ASIO helping the US thwart a school shooting planned by a 12-year-old. In areas ranging from defending AUKUS to monitoring signs of election interference, Australia is well-served by ASIO’s operations to combat espionage and foreign interference, making the nation a harder target.