An extraordinary moment in US presidential history

In a private message to Donald Trump on Friday, Scott Morrison spoke for Australians when he wished the US President and wife Melania a “speedy and full recovery” from COVID-19. Mr Trump’s video message from hospital on Saturday US time, insisting he “feels much better now”, is hopefully a good sign he will be back on the campaign trail soon for the November 3 election. But nothing is certain amid the crisis that has followed his hospitalisation. He and others in the COVID cluster emerging at the heart of the White House must heed the lessons from their diagnoses with a virus that has infected 7.3 million Americans and killed 230,000 so far.

The September 27 White House Rose Garden ceremony at which Mr Trump announced Judge Amy Coney Barrett as his choice for the Supreme Court is believed to be at the epicentre of the outbreak. Eleven of the audience have since tested positive. They include Mr Trump’s personal assistant, Hope Hicks, re-election campaign head Bill Stepien, Republican National Committee chairwoman Ronna McDaniel and close adviser Kellyanne Conway. Three Republican senators also tested positive, halting voting for a week and throwing the confirmation process for Judge Barrett into doubt.

Taking their cue from Mr Trump’s attitude to mask-wearing, few of the 150 attendees at the function did so. Many embraced, ignoring social distancing. Masks are no assured defence against the pernicious virus. Neither is social distancing. But medical experts believe they help significantly.

An incumbent President being hospitalised with a potentially fatal illness a month from voting day takes the campaign into uncharted waters. The disaster may, as Cameron Stewart writes on Monday, underline Mr Trump’s inability to protect the public from the pandemic. On the other hand, patriotic Americans have a history of rallying around sick or injured presidents. The despicable reactions of some Trump haters, such as Hillary Clinton’s ex-staffer, Zara Rahim, might help him.

If Mr Trump became seriously ill and unable to do his job, he could, under the US Constitution’s 25th Amendment, notify congress. Vice-President Mike Pence would then become acting president until Mr Trump sent a second letter declaring he was able to resume his duties. If he were unable to issue the first declaration, the Vice-President and the heads of 15 major executive departments would be able to declare in writing that the President “is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office”. Mr Pence would become acting president immediately, as University of California Law professor John Yoo writes in Monday’s World section.

The situation adds interest to Thursday’s debate between Mr Pence and 77-year-old Mr Biden’s running mate, Senator Kamala Harris. With voting under way, there is no certainty Mr Trump’s name could be removed from the ballot, even if he died or was unable to continue. Much would depend on the electoral college. As he says, the next few days will be crucial.