Albanese’s five-year plan to boost military capabilities

Anthony Albanese’s forward-looking approach to upgrading the capability of the Australian Defence Force is right for the times and for the nation’s worsening security outlook. The growing interest of the US in the strategic value of northern Australia is the most powerful deterrent added to our security in the past 20 years, as Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior fellow Peter Jennings wrote this week. But more is needed. A weak Australia will attract more intimidation from Beijing, not less.

In an exclusive interview with foreign editor Greg Sheridan in Inquirer, the Prime Minister sets out his plans to create a military force capable of defending the nation, promising major changes within five years. Despite fiscal restraint in the effort to control inflation, Mr Albanese is determined to increase the defence budget to acquire the “(defence) assets Australia needs to defend ourselves, but also to project (force)”.

His focus is on “weaponry that can actually make a difference”, assets that improve security for every dollar spent. His singling out of missiles, missile defences, drones and cyber security is eminently sensible. As he said: “Are we going to be involved in a land war, in central Queensland? If so, you need some assets for that. But is that likely? Well, no. A lot of the expenditure was based on where Australia’s recent military experience had been, in Iraq and Afghanistan.” The force structure review by former foreign and defence minister Stephen Smith and former Defence Force chief Angus Houston and the study into what type of nuclear-propelled submarine should be acquired under the AUKUS pact with the US and Britain will be major influences shaping the future. Cabinet’s national security committee is closely involved with both processes.

The challenges are manifest. Even ammunition stocks are low. The 2020 Defence Strategic Update acknowledged that Australia no longer had the luxury of a 10-year warning time to prepare to defend itself. Threats could emerge much faster. Writing in The Australian last month, geopolitical risk consultant and academic Alan Dupont quoted retired army major general Mick Ryan, who has spent decades studying future warfare and Australian defence. It is vital, Mr Ryan says, to procure “available long-range strike missiles” able to be launched from “mobile, survivable, air, land and sea platforms”. Swarms of autonomous systems “can deny airspace” and interdict enemy forces across the seas of the Indo-Pacific. Land-based Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of 2400km, able to reach beyond Jakarta and the southern tip of The Philippines, would prevent easy access to our shores by hostile ships.

Unlike prominent Labor figures such as Paul Keating, who has ridiculed the Quadrilateral Strategic Dialogue between Australia, the US, Japan, and India, Mr Albanese emerges as a staunch supporter of the nation’s alliances. He will host the Quad next year and affirmed the US remained our most important ally. The growing security relationship with Japan, he confirmed, was “driven from the top”, by him and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. India, on track to be the world’s third largest economy, which Mr Albanese will visit next year, was very important strategically and in terms of technology.

Mr Albanese’s view of Australia’s strategic challenges, alliances and the need for better defences line up with those of the Coalition in office. His further step, pledging to recalibrate defence spending priorities, is vital. It also underlines the need for stronger economic growth.

In the recent budget, defence spending fell from 1.98 per cent to 1.96 per cent of gross domestic product. It is projected to rise to 2.08, 2.12 and 2.1 per cent in the forward estimates – figures that surely will need to be revised up after the strategic review and the nuclear-powered submarine reports. Amid the most serious security outlook since World War II, there is a long way to go.