Albanese must stick to the middle road on climate

In opposition, Anthony Albanese made an impassioned plea for an end to the climate wars that had dogged the nation, dragging down successive prime ministers and leading to perceptions of opprobrium on the international stage. In government, Mr Albanese is about to find out these things are easier said than done. The Prime Minister’s first challenge will be to legislate a cut to greenhouse gas emissions of 43 per cent over 2005 levels by 2030, a more ambitious target than that of the Morrison government. To do so he will need the support of an obstructionist Senate. A triumphant Greens leader, Adam Bandt, has made it clear that support will be contingent on no further coal or gas developments being approved. During the election campaign Mr Albanese rejected the Greens’ demands. How he manages the issue is likely to define the success or otherwise of his government. This extends to discussions with the raft of independents who have been elected to the lower house and hold extreme positions on climate action but do not have a deciding vote.

On climate policy, Labor finds itself holding the reins but in the middle of the pack with a pledge to cut emissions by 43 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. The Coalition’s 2030 target was for cuts of 26 to 28 per cent, confident it would exceed that target. The teal independents want cuts of 60 per cent by 2030 and the Greens want net-zero emissions by 2035. Labor must hold true to the reality that it is not the targets that matter but results. Australia stands apart from many nations by the fact it has met the climate targets it has set. Others, New Zealand and Canada included, have made big calls but delivered small results.

The scale of the challenge needed to meet what Labor has already promised is great. It will involve boosting renewable energy to 82 per cent of supply by 2030, putting a carbon trading scheme on big business, and spending billions on infrastructure and new technologies. Labor’s policy taken to the election would cost $75bn by 2030, equal to 3 per cent of gross domestic product. Billions of dollars will be spent upgrading electricity networks, electric vehicles will be given special tax advantages and a new $15bn national reconstruction fund will provide finance and investment for renewables and other low-emissions technologies. The centrepiece of Labor’s plan is a revised safeguards mechanism that would become a cap-and-trade carbon market for the nation’s biggest emissions industries. A new body would decide which major companies were forced to cut their emissions, with the total amount of emissions allowed across the economy to be reduced each year.

The rate of decline in emissions will be matched to what is needed to achieve net zero by 2050, which is bipartisan policy between Labor and the Coalition. Rather than cede to the demands of the Greens and others, Mr Albanese would be wise to capture whatever bipartisan agreement he can with the Liberal Party in opposition. The history of the climate wars in Australia can be traced to a refusal by the Greens to compromise and support the Rudd government’s plans for a carbon pollution reduction scheme in 2009, the beginning of the end for Kevin Rudd. Likewise, a deal with the Greens for a carbon tax cursed Julia Gillard’s tenure as prime minister. Mr Albanese cannot accept the Greens’ demands for an end to coal and gas production without breaking faith with his promise to blue-collar workers made during the campaign.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Party is itself in a delicate position on whether to support Labor. The results of the election demonstrate that conservative forces are split between the progressive ideals of voters in the Liberals’ traditional inner-city heartland and disenchantment about the party’s drift to the left among voters in outer-suburban and rural seats. For many, being obstructionist on climate change action is a route to further alienation in the seats it has lost in areas such as Wentworth, Kooyong and North Sydney. The alternative view is that the Coalition forces must stand up and protect those who will be hardest hit by the decarbonisation trend that is being demanded. In truth, Labor will find, as had the Coalition, that in the current environment there will be no end to the demands that will be made on climate. If the experience in Britain, France, Germany, the US and elsewhere is any guide, come the next election voters may have quite a different attitude towards climate change maximalism and the costs involved.