Ageing subs major risk until 2032

The nation’s strategic position in the region was far less dangerous in June 2011 when Cameron Stewart reported on the front page: “For the first time in a generation, Australia does not have a single submarine available to defend the nation today. The Australian understands the entire fleet of six Collins-class submarines cannot be put to sea despite the navy’s claim that two of them remain officially ‘operational’.” The vessels were repaired and continued in service.

Thirteen years on, with an increasingly aggressive China engaged in an unprecedented military build-up, the situation is now critical. The Collins submarines were initially due to be retired progressively every two years from 2026, until authorities decided to extend the life of the fleet. Australia must plug a looming gap in capability with the US-made Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines due to arrive in 2032, 2035 and 2037 under the AUKUS pact. They will be followed by the building of the British-designed SSN-AUKUS submarines, the first of which is expected in the early 2040s.

But as Stewart reports, the Albanese government has been warned that the $5bn life of type extension plan to extend the life of the Collins subs is perilously high-risk and not guaranteed to succeed. The government commissioned the assessment of the LOTE project, by former US Navy deputy assistant secretary Gloria Valdez, in October. Ms Valdez’s interim report noted extensive technical risks to the LOTE program, saying the size and scope of the planned extensions had never before been attempted on the bespoke Collins-class boats, which were built between 1990 and 2003. Naval experts fear that by the late 2030s and 2040s, the Collins subs, which were designed in the 1980s, would be sitting ducks for newer, more sophisticated vessels being built by China. They also say it is unrealistic to expect that each Collins-class submarine can be refitted under the LOTE plan in just two years.

The predicament arises after years of political instability, and a revolving door of defence ministers under the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd-Abbott-Turnbull and Morrison governments, which devised the AUKUS pact with the US and Britain. Both Coalition and Labor governments, while promising much, have repeatedly kicked major defence spending down the road, back-end loading funding for major defence projects.

While nuclear-powered submarines will strengthen Australia’s defences, the ensuing eight-year gap needs to be addressed with an efficient, practical plan geared to the near term. In view of Ms Valdez’s concern that Australia’s government-owned submarine company, ASC, lacks the design and engineering experience to extend the life of the Collins subs for a full decade, the government should follow her advice to give the Collins submarine’s original Swedish designer, SAAB Kockums, a larger role in carrying out the upgrades. SAAB Kockums staff would need to travel to Australia, where the upgrades would be undertaken. If the program is successful, it would mean the Collins-class fleet would continue to operate until 2038, with the six vessels to be retired between then and 2048.

Unsatisfactory as a make-do-and-mend approach is in a critical area of the nation’s defence, the predicament underlines the importance of the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines to national security. And the need for governments to give defence the priority it deserves.