Accurate data essential in confronting flu epidemics

In the midst of the flu epidemic that has killed scores of Australians, Health Minister Greg Hunt has raised important questions about the management of the outbreak in Victoria. It is reasonable to ask, as Mr Hunt did yesterday, why the state took three weeks to notify Canberra about the outbreak in a Wangaratta nursing home that killed eight people at the start of last month. The answer, as Rick Morton reports today, will be cold comfort for taxpayers. The Victorian bureaucrats got their administrative wires crossed and notified the wrong federal agency early on, before notifying the right one on August 31. The public also is entitled to know whether the delay meant medical authorities missed an opportunity to respond more quickly to a mutating strain of influenza A.

Victoria also has lagged other states in confirming the number of cases. As the federal Australian Influenza Surveillance Report notes: “Victoria is experiencing a significant administrative backlog in data entry.” While NSW had 69,000 confirmed flu cases by September 1 and Queensland 35,360 cases, the purported number in Victoria was just 12,348 — a distorted figure due to a data backlog, reportedly arising from high laboratory demand.

With another 12 weeks of the flu season to go, medical authorities also face hard questions about the efficacy of this year’s flu injection, whether Australia’s vaccination rates are high enough and why the antiviral medication Tamiflu was in short supply at the height of the epidemic.

Australia’s Chief Medical Officer, Brendan Murphy, has confirmed a significantly higher number of flu cases than normal have been diagnosed in people who had been vaccinated. At least 170,000 cases have been confirmed, about 2½ times more than last year.

Most were linked to the H3N2 strain of the influenza A virus, which is especially dangerous for the elderly and young children. Medical authorities said it was of “moderate severity”. Earlier this month, they also confirmed shortages of Tamiflu but said supplies were being replenished. Better planning is needed next year.

It is not clear why this season’s vaccine has not been as effective as in previous years but authorities are taking the lesson on board. For next year, as Professor Murphy told The Australian, alternative vaccinations are being considered. Two potential options include a quadruple-strength flu shot and another with an added chemical to boost immune response.

If informed decisions are to be made, accurate data is vital. While federal Health Department figures show 72 flu-associated deaths across the country, NSW had 215 deaths in aged-care centres affected by flu and Victorian authorities have reported 95 deaths. Australians also have been shocked by other deaths, such as those of eight-year-old Melbourne girl Rosie Anderson and Ben Ihlow, 30, from Bacchus Marsh, west of Melbourne, who died on his first Father’s Day with his baby son. The pain of loss will never leave loved ones; authorities owe it to Australians to be as well prepared as possible for future epidemics.