Abraham Accord breakthrough

Donald Trump can take considerable credit for Tuesday’s historic signing in Washington of the Abraham Accord, or accords as he calls the agreement covering the normalisation of relations between Israel and the Arab states of Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. The accord — named after the prophet of Judaism, Christianity and Islam — is not “the dawn of a new Middle East” as the US President claimed, at least not yet. But it is significant and represents a remarkable triumph for his strategy in casting aside the failed conventional playbook for how peace might be achieved between Israel and its neighbours.

For years US negotiators tried to get Israelis and Palestinians to give up something for peace and a two-state solution. Deadlock inevitably followed, with each side seeing concessions as a lose-lose outcome. Mr Trump, with his transactional approach, focused instead on achieving a win-win peace arrangement between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain. They are the first Arab states since Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994 to sign what are effectively formal peace treaties with the Jewish state. Mr Trump says similar deals with other countries are well advanced, with Oman, Sudan, Morocco and Saudi Arabia mentioned: “We (have taken) a major stride toward a future in which people of all faiths and backgrounds can live together in peace and prosperity.”

The Palestinians, who have sidelined themselves, are furious. Their leaders talk of being “stabbed in the back” by their Arab brothers. But they have only themselves to blame. Moderate Sunni Arab states such as Bahrain and the UAE are fed up with mindless Palestinian refusals to negotiate realistically with Israel. Even Palestinian leaders cannot deny the accord is a potential game-changer in the Middle East. Mr Trump has cannily tapped into deepening regional apprehension over Iran’s belligerence and nuclear ambitions. His Middle East credentials among worried moderate states have been boosted by dumping Barack Obama’s misguided nuclear deal and the way he went about liquidating the notorious terrorist mastermind of Tehran’s aggression, Qasem Soleimani, early this year.

Mr Trump’s December 2017 announcement that he was unilaterally recognising the incontrovertible reality that Jerusalem was Israel’s capital was greeted with outrage, particularly in the Arab world. Critics claimed it spelled the end of peace hopes. The signing of the Abraham Accord shows how wrong those dismal assessments were. Arab nations have paid a high price for their self-inflicted isolation from Israel’s economy, which is the most dynamic in the region. Their stance has hurt investment and exacerbated poverty. The accord shows the extent to which the mood in the Middle East is changing. Even the 22-nation Arab League, often a hotbed of anti-Israel ferment, did not support a Palestinian demand to condemn the UAE’s diplomatic ties with Jerusalem.

With the US election imminent, it is no surprise Mr Trump is exploiting the historic agreement for all it is worth. It will help him among evangelicals and the powerful US Jewish constituency. The President has earned bragging rights. But the bigger issue is whether obdurate Palestinian leaders will recognise the tide is turning and return with greater realism to the negotiating table with Israel.