A sobering strategic assessment

The blunt assessment by Paul Dibb and Richard Brabin-Smith of the potential threat Australia faces from China has introduced an overdue element of realism and urgency into our defence debate. It must not be ignored. Their forthright conclusion in their paper for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute — that for the first time since World War II “we must now reckon with a major power capable of doing us serious damage” — demonstrates the need to focus on the evolving danger.

Commendably, the two former deputy defence secretaries, both with vast experience in strategic policy, have no time for the diplomatic sensitivities that seek to suggest our multi-billion-dollar submarine, frigate and missile acquisition programs have a potential enemy other than China in mind. “No other major power is likely to threaten us militarily in the foreseeable future,” they warn. “China’s militarisation of the South China Sea has brought its power projection capabilities 1200km closer to Australia’s vulnerable northern approaches.” There is also a risk, they note, of Southeast Asia becoming a Chinese sphere of influence. “Individual Southeast Asian countries are drifting into China’s orbit … Beijing is steadily eroding our strategic space … this is shortening the time Australia has to understand, prepare and, if necessary, respond to adverse military developments.”

Automatically assuming that China’s actions are hostile to Australia’s interests would be a mistake, they caution. As foreign editor Greg Sheridan says, “we should do everything to positively engage the Chinese government” and ensure good relations. Defence planning, however, demands realistic assessments based on a worst-case scenario in which any eventuality could arise, rather than dangerous delusions about everlasting peace and goodwill articulated by the well-financed pro-China lobby.

Given our proximity to the epicentre of Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, it would be inconceivable not to make a clear-eyed assessment of the threat this potentially poses. Mr Dibb and Mr Brabin-Smith have done precisely that. Only a country unwilling to face reality would ignore their argument that Australia should prepare to meet whatever challenges may arise. By presenting the unalloyed reality as it has, Mr Dibb and Mr Brabin-Smith’s paper should contribute to that process. They deserve the nation’s thanks. Seldom before has the evolving, potential threat been spelled out as clearly.