A century of history at stake

Most Australians could not name the candidates in Saturday’s Eden-Monaro by-election. But they grasp its significance. Those who follow politics recognise the NSW south coast electorate was a bellwether federal seat for decades, although in 2016 and in May last year it bucked the national trend. Labor’s Mike Kelly was returned last year with a 0.85 per cent margin. Dr Kelly, a war veteran, is retiring due to ill-health caused by severe dehydration suffered when he served in Iraq. In the opposition’s fourth most marginal seat, the loss of his personal following could be a blow to Anthony Albanese.

None of the major parties has had a smooth campaign. The Opposition Leader could have done without the branch-stacking scandal in Victoria. The ASIO raid on NSW upper house MP Shaoquett Moselmane, which highlighted his close personal ties to China, was another blow to Labor. And its billboard in Wagga Wagga, urging voters to support Labor candidate Kristy McBain, was a goof-up that made the opposition look out of touch. Wagga Wagga is not in Eden-Monaro.

The Coalition had a shambolic start, to-ing and fro-ing over whether NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro or state Liberal Transport Minister Andrew Constance would run. Neither did. But as Rosie Lewis reported on Thursday, Mr Barilaro, selfishly, and his supporters have been undermining Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs by asking voters to preference Labor. The Australian has seen a voter’s ballot paper that numbered Nationals candidate Trevor Hicks “1” and Ms McBain “2”, despite the Nationals’ official how-to-vote card preferencing the Liberals. Some Nationals want Labor to ­beat Dr Kotvojs so “Barra” can have a crack at the seat later under the terms of the Coalition agreement.

On paper, this is a strong contest between local candidates. Dr Kotvojs, a former teacher, raises cattle and grows truffles on her family farm. She took Dr Kelly to preferences last year. Ms McBain, a lawyer, stepped aside as Bega Valley mayor to contest Eden-Monaro.

The Morrison government’s handling of COVID-19, the economic recovery, rebuilding after catastrophic bushfires and land usage to minimise chances of recurrences are vital issues. Defence, national security and strategic policy are taking on new importance.

The last prime minister to win an opposition seat in a by-election was Billy Hughes, who wrested Kalgoorlie from Labor in 1920. The weight of that history compounds the pressure on Mr Albanese, who has more at stake. He does not want to be the Opposition Leader to break the pattern of a century. Scott Morrison wants to see his soaring approval translate to votes. For him, a Liberal win would rank as another “miracle”. It would lift the government’s buffer to 78 seats out of 151, ensuring stability at a critical time. From a national perspective, that would be a good result. It also would see the treachery of certain Nationals go unrewarded.