Donald Trump’s epic show of strength won’t sway Joe Biden

Republican presidential candidate and former US President Donald Trump gestures to supporters following the assassination attempt. Picture: Reuters

The horrible assassination attempt on Donald Trump dramatically changes the US election campaign. It’s the first significant assassination attempt on a US political leader in 40 years. Trump was an inch away from death.

His reaction in that moment was telling. Trump was angry and defiant. He punched the air and yelled out “fight” three times. But above all else he kept his composure. For all the critics, who thought they knew Trump well, his reaction in that moment was revealing.

How Trump handles the next few days, as the shock of the moment passes, will influence American politics for years to come.

Over the next few days it will also become clear that President Joe Biden will not cut and run. Thoughts about him declining the nomination and handing over to Kamala Harris will evaporate rapidly.

For Biden to throw in the towel now would look cowardly and insipid. That is not his life story. Biden has had terrible personal tragedies, and he has dealt with those moments with great courage and fortitude. He is a fighter by instinct. Biden will not willingly walk away from the presidency. Not now.

Those who speculate that the assassination attempt on Trump could trigger Biden’s abdication will likely be proven wrong. Only the reality of donations drying up and a wave of national sympathy for Trump may make Biden reconsider his position, but this is unlikely.

If they are to remain competitive in the race, how Biden and his Democrat colleagues handle this situation will be crucial.

In the moments after the assassination attempt, Biden gave a short press conference that was authoritative and compassionate. He expressed genuine outrage and said he had endeavoured to directly contact “Donald”. It was a dignified response, though unlikely to be enough.

Democrats will need to be united and sombre. They should react with anger to the inevitable conspiracy theories that will emerge, but they must also rally around Biden and forge ahead with a policy agenda that includes a considered response to the event.

You can expect more debate about gun law reform. After senior House Republican Steve Scalise was shot at a congressional baseball game in 2017, in which six people were killed, he defended the Second Amendment right to carry guns. Scalise went on to vote against gun law reform. For some, the moment of near death is not enough to neutralise their hardened views on guns.

Trump instinctively agrees with some gun law reform; he’s often been at odds with his Republican colleagues and the National Rifle Association about the necessary changes that would make guns less accessible to bad people.

After numerous mass shootings, including in Texas and Ohio in 2019, Trump initiated better background checks for weapon sales. But his initial, hardline positions were watered down over time, after meeting with the NRA and some serious lobbying from his Republican colleagues.

This shooting in Pennsylvania will have an enduring impact on Trump. His immediate reaction, displaying anger and defiance, was understandable. That’s what many Americans wanted to see.

But it will give him further cause to reflect on the nomination of his vice-presidential candidate. Trump has just hours to finalise his decision. The Republican Convention starts on Monday in Milwaukee and the candidate is compelled to nominate his running mate.

In 2016, Trump famously changed his mind about his running mate just hours before the announcement. Initially he wanted Chris Christie but at the last minute Trump’s family convinced him Mike Pence was a better pick. Trump has subsequently fallen out with both men.

He is more than capable of changing his mind again. Even though there is a very thorough and extensive vetting process undertaken on potential vice-presidential candidates by both political parties, there is some last-minute room to move.

Inside talk last week suggested JD Vance – a 39-year-old first-term senator from Ohio and author of best-selling memoir Hillbilly Elegy – was the frontrunner. Close behind was governor Doug Burgum, a 67-year-old businessman from North Dakota, who will be familiar with Australia, having served as Atlassian chair until he ran for governor in 2016. Both candidates are competent but widely unknown.

Perhaps Trump will reassess the most important qualities he expects of his potential successor. Until now – particularly after feeling Pence was disloyal – Trump’s overwhelming focus was on having a loyal deputy.

But he now needs to deal with the reality that his running mate may be a single moment away from becoming president of the United States. All of a sudden the qualifications for a running mate, in the eyes of the candidates, the parties and the American people, have become hugely important. The vulnerability of the president to unforeseen events has come starkly back into focus.

America is forever scarred by the harrowing scenes of the John F. Kennedy assassination in 1963. That iconic photo of then-vice-president Lyndon B. Johnson, being sworn in on Air Force One, standing next to a bloodstained Jacqueline Kennedy, reminded everyone of the importance of political stability and continuity in the world’s most important job.

When president Richard Nixon had to sack his vice-president Spiro Agnew in October 1973, Gerald Ford was plucked out of the congress to serve as vice-president. Within a year, Nixon resigned over Watergate and Ford was the unlikely president. He went on to lose the next election. The system worked.

In 1981, president Ronald Reagan was shot by a would-be assassin outside the Hilton Hotel in Washington DC. A series of chaotic events unfolded, with secretary of state Al Haig claiming he was “in control”, oblivious to the fact that the vice-president was to stand in, even though he was on a plane from Texas.

Until now all the attention has been on whether Kamala Harris is up to the job. That scrutiny will intensify over the coming weeks. Neither Trump nor Biden have the luxury of time to figure out their futures, and the futures of their parties. Voting in the election starts in mid-September. So this week will be crucial.

As of now, who fills the crucial role of Trump’s running mate remains unknown. Donald Trump will have to do some serious thinking in a short period of time. His choice of running mate in the next few days may be a much bigger decision than we think.

Joe Hockey served as treasurer of Australia from 2013-15. He was Australian ambassador to the US from 2016-20.