Donald Trump verdict: Voters will decide former president’s fitness to sit in the White House

The 45th president of the United States, Donald Trump is a convict.

Trump has been found guilty of 34 E-Class felonies (considered the lowest level of felony offences in the state of New York), namely falsifying business records in the first degree which states, “A person is guilty of falsifying business records in the first degree when he commits the crime of falsifying business records in the second degree, and when his intent to defraud includes an intent to commit another crime or to aid or conceal the commission thereof.”

While Trump’s many political foes will be hard at work conjuring up AI-generated images of Donald Trump sporting a brand new orange tank suit, the prospect of jail time seems unlikely at least before the presidential election on November 5.

There will be an appeal, a slow process which can take months and possibly years. Until such a time as a higher court might overturn the convictions, Trump will remain a convicted felon. A sentencing hearing is due on July 11 and Trump might find himself under custodial sentence but would remain free while the appeals process unfolds.

Forty-eight of the 50 states prohibit individuals with felony convictions from voting but where a felony conviction occurs in another state, the state of Florida cedes to the law in the state where the felonies were committed. In New York, convicted felons are only barred from voting during the course of serving a prison sentence.

In other words, Trump can still run for the presidency, can still be elected and can cast a vote in his home state of Florida on November 5.

Trump may benefit from an increase in donations. His website crashed not long after the foreman of the jury uttered the word ‘guilty’ 34 times to New York Supreme Court judge Juan Merchan, suggesting at least a flood of donors willing to put their hands in their pockets to support Trump’s candidacy.

In political terms, there are more than one United States of America. There is bi-coastal America, the west and east coasts as far as the Carolinas, where Trump and the GOP in recent times, fare poorly. In the five boroughs of New York City in the 2020 presidential election, Biden won Manhattan 84.5 per cent to Trump’s 14.5 per cent. In the Bronx, Biden won 82.5 per cent to Trump’s 17 per cent. Biden won three quarters of the vote in Brooklyn and 69 per cent in Queens with Trump winning over voters on Staten Island 61.6 per cent to Biden’s 37.6 per cent.

Biden swept California winning almost two-thirds of the vote with a similar result in Massachusetts. Biden won Washington state by almost 20 per cent and Oregon 57 to 43.

Trump has his own heartland in the south with the exception of Georgia which he lost by less than 12000 votes in 2020. He scored huge wins in Middle America in the states of Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri as well as thumping wins in Utah, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho and the Dakotas.

Hearts will harden and Trump’s MAGA supporters – considered to run somewhere between 20 and 30 per cent of the GOP total vote will be queuing outside polling booths with gleams in their eyes. We can safely say that Trump’s most ardent supporters will turn up and vote for their man on November 5.

People react moments after news that former president Donald Trump was found guilty in his trial on hush-money payments in Manhattan Criminal Court.

Elections are won and lost in swing states and more so by independent voters that live in them, a tranche of non-aligned voters now bigger than the number who register or are affiliated with the two major parties.

How will independent voters in the midwest states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota as well as Pennsylvania and Ohio regard Trump’s convictions? How will Georgians regard this turn of events? North Carolinians? Even Floridians? How might independent voters in the southwest in the states of New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona regard a candidate who is also a convict? Those vexing equations are made more complex by voluntary voting. How many independents in these swing states will cast a ballot?

The answer to that is we’ll know on or after November 5.

The question of the fitness of both presumptive nominees, Biden and Trump has been a major talking point in US politics prior to Trump’s conviction. Both are old men. Biden will turn 82 a fortnight after the presidential election and Trump turns 78 next month. Both sides have engineered a sense that Biden and Trump lack the mental capacity for the top job. Out there in voterland, among independents, there is a prevailing sense of ennui, of a Hobson’s Choice between the two candidates.

On June 27, Biden and Trump will have the first of two presidential debates, the second is scheduled for September 10. Why so early? Call me cynical but the June debate stands as an enormous test for Biden. If he struggles, equivocates, stammers or pops a foot into his mouth, as he is prone to do, there remains a strong possibility that he will be tapped on the shoulder prior to or during the Democratic National Convention in mid-August in Chicago. The party could select another candidate. There are a limited number of prospects at their disposal. Of these, California Governor Gavin Newsom is a standout but a California Democrat might not have the same appeal in the midwest as he would in the bi-coastal states.

The standing issues around the economy and economic management, women’s reproductive rights and border control remain strong voting determinants.

While US politics sails into uncharted territory, nothing much has changed with Trump’s convictions in New York. Voters will determine Trump’s fitness to sit in the White House and that, I’d argue, is the best course of action.