With Donald Trump heading the field as the most likely Republican candidate for the presidency in 2024, America’s constitutional crisis seems far from over as new material surfaces about Trump’s effort to illegally seize power in January this year.
Trump has forfeited any claim to be seen as a mere populist conservative politician. Earlier this year, Trump sought to overthrow the 2020 presidential election result, subvert the American Constitution and seize power by corrupt means. As conservative commentator Andrew Sullivan argues, Trump is a combination of farce and ineptitude on one hand while imitating elements of the fascist playbook on the other hand.
The Trump story, as documented by Bob Woodward and Robert Costa in their recently released book, Peril, invites parallels with the intimidation, egomania and will to power of petty tyrants down the ages.
But the dilemma confronting America is apparent: whether the crisis of January 2021 is a danger never to be repeated or merely the dress rehearsal for a deeper crisis in 2024 when Trump will declare beforehand that only another “stolen” election can defeat him.
Much of America seems tied to the delusion that Trump must be finished, given his self-destructive complicity in the invasion of the Capitol and refusal to accept the 2020 election result.
Donald Trump is a political criminal, not just a populist
Yet a Harvard CAPS-Harris poll published in The Hill a few days ago showed 58 per cent of Republican voters said they would put Trump on the ballot paper for 2024 with former vice-president Mike Pence a distant second with 13 per cent.
Trump has the Republican Party trapped – it is chained to a renegade figure yet cannot find the means to liberate itself.
In an electric and contentious essay, senior fellow at Brookings and prominent foreign policy analyst Robert Kagan has written in The Washington Post that America is “heading into its greatest political and constitutional crisis since the Civil War” with a risk of mass violence and the country divided into warring red and blue states.
“First, Donald Trump will be the Republican candidate for president in 2024,” Kagan writes. “He enjoys mammoth leads in the polls; he is building a massive campaign war chest; and at this moment the Democratic ticket looks vulnerable. Barring health problems he is running.
“Second, Trump and his Republican allies are actively preparing to ensure his victory by whatever means necessary. Trump’s charges of fraud in the 2020 election are now primarily aimed at establishing the predicate to challenge future election results that do not go his way. Republican legislatures are giving themselves greater control over the election certification process.”
Kagan warns that many Americans are still locked into underestimating the authoritarian messiah complex – they underestimated Trump in 2015, misjudged his popularity, misread his ability to seize control of the Republican Party and misjudged how far he would go to keep power. What makes Trump uniquely dangerous is that he is a demagogue, not alone, but in control of a major party with the ability to either win the 2024 election, subvert the vote or contest any defeat.
Pivotal to Trump’s success is the moral collapse of American conservatism. Trump exploits the deepest conservative fears that progressives are undermining their nation, their religion, their traditional economy, their borders and their freedoms.
Trump has orchestrated a cult of personality based on the belief of his supporters that the Biden presidency is illegitimate and must be purged.
The Woodward-Costa book describes how Trump and his backers devised a scheme, put in writing, to overthrow the result by having states where the vote was allegedly contested send alternative slates of electors into the Electoral College system. The plan was to have vice-president Mike Pence, responsible for announcing the result, say that “because of the ongoing disputes in the seven states” no electors could be validly appointed in those states.
This meant 232 votes for Trump and 222 votes for Biden. Trump would be re-elected. Alternatively, the issue could be thrown to the house to decide, where Trump had the numbers.
It was impractical, ludicrous and unconstitutional. But that didn’t stop Trump. On the evening of January 5, when he met Pence, Trump referred to the thousands of his supporters now gathering outside. They love me, he said. “They love you, Mr President,” Pence said. “But they also love our Constitution.” Trump said he just wanted Pence to let the house decide the election. Pence said he did not have such constitutional authority.
“Well, what if these people say you do?” Trump asked Pence as he gestured beyond the White House to the mob. “No,” Pence said. “I don’t see a way to do it. I personally believe there are limits to what I can do.”
“No, no, no,” shouted Trump. “You don’t understand, Mike. “You can do this.” Trump saw his hold over Pence slipping. “You’ve betrayed us. I made you. You were nothing,” Trump said. “Your career is over if you do this.” But Pence did not break.
Trump directed his campaign to issue a statement saying he and Pence were in “total agreement” that the VP could act. The statement was a misrepresentation. At 1am Trump tweeted that if Pence “comes through for us, we will win the presidency”. Pence’s staff had spoken to a range of lawyers. Their unanimous view was that the VP had no discretion; don’t even think about it.
Trump rang Pence at 10am on January 6 ahead of congress convening. “I’m counting on you to do it,” Trump said. “If you don’t do it, I picked the wrong man four years ago.” At 1.02pm, Pence released his letter saying that “I do not believe that the Founders of our country intended to invest the Vice-President with unilateral authority to decide which electoral votes should be counted during the Joint Session of Congress.” The letter finished with the words: “So Help Me God.”
When the mob broke the windows at the Capitol after 2pm, some were chanting: “Hang Mike Pence. Where is Pence? Find him.” In the end, no slate of electors was altered by Republican states to assist Trump. At 3.40am on January 7, Pence announced Biden was certified as the winner.
Seeing Trump as merely a narcissistic populist with a contempt for the system misjudges the man. That view was previously possible but not anymore. His resort to unconstitutional methods to seize power by falsifying the election result is a pathetic variation on the modes of 20th-century fascist law-breaking. Having tried this once, does anyone doubt he won’t try it again in 2024 if need be?
Trump’s behaviour falls outside the accepted spectrum of democratic politics. Yet he remains a lethal force within that system. Claims that he is a conservative merely conceal his malevolence. Australian politicians and commentators should be called out when they reignite their Trump crusades. Trump is a political criminal who tried to subvert the US Constitution and he should be treated as such.
More Coverage
Read related topics:Donald Trump
Join the conversation
UN’s alleged ‘peacekeepers’ should pack their bags
Their continued presence is dangerous to themselves, helpful to Hezbollah and prolongs the conflict by making it harder for Israel to clear out Hezbollah infrastructure near the border.
Read more
When navigating shares, ignore the white noise
Although financial commentary is rife with near-term events and distant prognostication, almost none of this directly helps navigate sharemarkets. So what should we be looking for?
Read more