Distracted US in the Middle East will be far from ideal for Australia

US President Joe Biden boards Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, enroute to Israel. Picture: AFP

As the stakes in the Israel-Hamas war get higher, so do the ramifications for Australia.

The growing conflict now threatens to deliver a major long-term pivot in America’s foreign policy back towards the Middle East, undermining Washington’s ability to focus on the ambitions of Russia in Ukraine and China in the Indo-Pacific.

None of this is good news for Australia, which needs an active and engaged US military presence in the Pacific to balance China’s hegemonic behaviour in the South China Sea and the South Pacific. Australia and Europe also need ongoing and unwavering US military support for Ukraine if Kyiv is to eventually repel Russia’s invading forces from the 20 per cent of Ukraine it still occupies.

Protesters clash with Lebanese security forces outside the US Embassy in Awkar, East of Beirut. Picture: AFP

The extent of this policy pivot by the US remains to be seen and will depend on the fast-evolving events in Israel and Gaza, including whether the war becomes a regional conflict if Iran gets involved through its terror-proxy Hezbollah.

Regardless of what unfolds in the Middle East, the US will still remain a key player trying to keep the ambitions of both Russia and China in check, but America’s ability to be a world policeman is not unlimited. Washington cannot greatly increase its military and diplomatic focus on one region without inevitably focusing less on others.

The Israel-Hamas war has ripped open existing wounds and fault lines in the Middle East, and the key lesson so far is that the ramifications of this still-unfolding conflict will be felt for years.

The Biden administration had been winding back the US military presence in the Middle East and shifting resources to the Indo-Pacific in the face of China’s rapid military spending, its threats towards Taiwan and its aggressive actions in the South China Sea. This reduced US posture in the Middle East has also made it easier for the US to pledge vast amounts of military support – including missiles and ammunition – to Ukraine in its 20-month fight with Russia.

Palestinian rescuers arrive at the scene after an Israeli strike in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip. Picture: AFP

The Wall Street Journal says the US withdrew more than eight Patriot missile batteries out of the region last year, including from Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, as well as a Terminal High Altitude Area Defence system from Saudi Arabia.

Mr Biden also ended America’s 20-year military commitment in Afghanistan, in part to refocus US attention on China in the Indo-Pacific. But the US has now been forced to send two aircraft carrier battle groups – a dozen ships and 12,000 military personnel – to the Middle East to deter Iran from using Hezbollah to attack Israel and thereby triggering a region-wide war.

One of the carrier strike groups, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, was supposed to participate in a NATO exercise aimed at bolstering Europe’s defences against Russia. The Pentagon also moved A-10 attack aircraft, and F-15 and F-16 jet fighters back to the Persian Gulf rather than merely rotating them through. It has ordered 2000 US troops to be ready to deploy to the Middle East.

Mr Biden maintains that the US can deal with the Gaza crisis without weakening US support for Ukraine, saying that “We can take care of both of these and still maintain our overall international defence.” He didn’t mention China.

The American forces being sent to the Middle East are supposed to be only temporary, and there is no obvious scenario at this stage which would see US soldiers fighting in the region. But Iran will exploit the Israel-Hamas conflict as much as it can, and the US may find that it needs to keep this beefed-up military presence in the Middle East far longer than it would like in order to maintain a deterrence against Iran and others. At the very least, the Middle East will become a much more central focus for the US than it was before Hamas launched its murderous attacks on Israel. This will have a ripple effect around the world and will be welcomed by Russia and China. But it’s not a welcome shift for Australia.