Daniel Andrews the great political fertiliser: growing debt at historic levels

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Luis Enrique Ascui

According to Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews the psephology is settled. His resounding election victory, he declared last weekend, reflected the will of a community that was “united in believing in science”.

The theatrics and stage setting for this pronouncement were near-perfect. Admittedly the costume department could have provided him with a lab coat and clipboard for the part, but that oversight did not detract from the message. If you believe in science, you believe in Dan Andrews. Thanks to his leadership, Victoria recorded one of the lowest Covid death rates of the states and territories, bettered only by Western Australia, South Australia, Queensland, Tasmania, New South Wales, Northern Territory, and the ACT.

The hallmark of the great actor is to deliver his lines flawlessly, and Andrews performed brilliantly. The public mood, he maintained with a straight face, was a “sense of kindness, that sense of connection, that sense that we are all in this together”.

As for what Andrews has done to the economy, let’s just say the self-professed science aficionado is the leading contender for this year’s Nobble Prize.

But no-one could doubt the definitive trait of Andrews’ last term of government was kindness, whether it be police enforcing Covid restrictions by handcuffing a pregnant pyjama-clad mother at home in front of her family or firing rubber pellets at anti-lockdown protesters. As for that sense of connection with family and friends during the world’s longest lockdown, how good is Zoom? And whether you are a former business owner gazing forlornly at the empty shopfront you once occupied or a state public servant who did not lose a cent during the pandemic, you would know there is a sense that we are all in this together.

The trepidation we felt at the thought of Andrews losing office has given way to immense relief, a feeling reinforced by the knowledge that tolerance inspires our leaders.

“I am so relieved that twice now Australians have resoundingly rejected hatred, nastiness, bullying & personal attacks in politics,” tweeted social commentator and author Jane Caro AO on Sunday. “Civility rocks.”

I am so relieved that twice now Australians have resoundingly rejected hatred, nastiness, bullying & personal attacks in politics. I am also cautiously optimistic that American voters are also growing weary of constant outrage & vitriol. Civility rocks.

— Jane Caro (@JaneCaro) November 27, 2022

That is a good point, I thought. No doubt many a conservative commentator was disappointed at the result, but to my knowledge none of them angrily tweeted on the night that Australia was “f..ked”. Nor did they petulantly declare they were migrating to New Zealand or sticking “two rude fingers up to the truculent turds who voted to turn backwards” as Caro did in 2019 when it became clear the Morrison government would be returned. But please, Jane, tell us more about the necessity for civility.

In addition to science, the Andrews brand is synonymous with growth. Think of Victoria as a garden and its Premier a powerful fertiliser. Witness for example the expansion of the public sector. As The Weekend Australian reported in August, the number of state public servants in Victoria grew nearly 20 per cent – almost double the rate of population growth – between 2014 and 2021. And as the Herald Sun noted last year, the number of executives in Victoria’s public service is nearly three times what it was when Andrews assumed office.

It goes without saying that even great leaders cannot do it alone, hence why they draw on public resources to assist them. That is why more than 90 taxpayer-funded staff are assigned to Andrews’ personal office. Something to do with disseminating the thoughts of the Premier to his adoring audience, I believe. It is money well spent. After all, the man is incapable of providing a straight answer at press conferences.

Part of the suburban rail loop at the corner of Collins and Swanston St in Melbourne. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Ian Currie

Truly magnificent and wonderful projects are on the horizon. For instance, there is the Suburban Rail Loop. When it announced the plan for the 90km orbital rail line around Melbourne in 2018, the Andrews government estimated it would cost $50bn.

In August the independent Parliamentary Budget Office forecast the project’s first two stages alone would cost more than double that at $125bn. True to form, Andrews repeatedly refused to provide an updated estimate during the election campaign.

Then there is his plan for the return of the government-owned State Electricity Commission. “Those power stations won’t be for profit, they’ll be for people,” Andrews declared at the announcement last month. That, together with the government’s plan to abolish coal-fired power plants by 2035, can only be described as a great leap backward.

The financial outlook for the state is, shall we say, interesting. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Victorians now have the second-lowest household disposable income per person in the country. What the state’s deficit will be for this financial year is anyone’s guess. Six months ago, the official forecast was $7.9bn. Last month Treasurer Tim Pallas announced a revised figure of $9.7bn.

Already the largest of the states and territories, Victoria’s net debt is forecast to reach $165.4bn – 24.6 per cent of gross state product – by mid-2026. To put that in perspective, NSW’s comparative figures for 2025-26 are $114.8bn and 13.7 per cent respectively.

At this rate older Victorians will look back with nostalgia to the Cain/Kirner years. Both these Labor premiers presided over financially ruinous governments. But compared to Andrews and Pallas they were as parsimonious as a Scottish moneylender.

Blame Victorian voters all you will for the result, but the Coalition forgot the rule that an opposition wins the election only if it distinguishes itself from the government, not mimics it. As to the Liberal Party supposedly being a safer pair of hands financially, forget it. That notion died at a press conference last week when a simple question revealed shadow treasurer David Davis was unable to quantify the Coalition’s total election commitment costings.

That’s not to say the Andrews personality cult played a marginal role in his return to government, for his following is as strong as ever. It would not matter if he shut down the entire state tomorrow over a solitary case of measles. His acolytes would immediately take to social media to thank him effusively for keeping Victorians safe.

In other news this week, Macquarie Dictionary has named ‘teal’ the word of the year. It is important to remember what it represents or rather represented, for you may be asked in a trivia competition one day. If the Victorian election is any indication, the teals will be to federal parliament what Martha and the Muffins were to music.