Coronavirus: Cooked communities want nation to stay open

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews can’t expect his vote in next year’s election to remain high if draconian measures are reinstated. Picture: AAP

A key challenge facing governments in the lockdown states and the ACT is that communities are largely cooked and have shown increasing resistance to hardline public health measures.

Yet the evidence is that case numbers may be about to surge in the two biggest states, with unclear implications for hospital systems.

While the new Omicron variant is in small numbers in Australia, and is considered less damaging, public health teams have started workshopping what measures might be needed to curb the inevitable spread.

In Victoria, one of the world’s most locked-down city-states, a return to harsh restrictions over the summer is likely to lead to an ugly revolt.

The tail end of the last lengthy lockdown showed that many were openly ignoring the rules, preferring to run the risk of fines rather than be held captive to the coronavirus.

In NSW, a more rebellious joint than its southern neighbour, it is hard to see a return to tighter restrictions being treated any differently by the community, although at least one minister has refused to rule out localised lockdowns.

While epidemiologists are quietly hopeful the Omicron variant could be a good thing over time because of its hopefully less severe effects, Australia must still deal with the potential for thousands of new cases a day.

It is the threat of sheer weight of numbers that is concerning governments, even if hospitalisation stays may be shorter.

The situation in England is volatile, amid record case numbers and the country’s chief medical officer urging Christmas plans be curtailed amid a certain spike in hospitalisations.

There are sharp differences between Australia and England, starting with vaccination rates, the seasonal weather differences and population densities.

But the experience of the mother country will be feeding into the thinking about the Australian response to the Covid-19 crisis.

The imperative of Australian governments must be to try to keep the country open.

The calmest epidemiologists in Australia seem to be largely backing the stay-open agenda but with some key qualifiers.

Potentially the return of the wider use of masks, QR codes, maybe even density limits and working from home.

In the strategic mix is the fact Australia is facing a new threat just as it prepares to go to the polls in the first half of next year.

The Morrison government, which has limited say over the states’ responses, will not be wanting the country to once again slow to a walk after the mishandling of the initial vaccine rollout.

Nor can Victorian Premier Dan Andrews, who faces the polls in less than a year, expect his vote to remain high if draconian measures are reinstated.

Ridiculous restrictions like shutting playgrounds and world-beating curbs on movement have changed the political game.

Just as the quite often bizarre border restrictions between the states have created unsustainable and debilitating barriers for travel.

Australians will be looking to government to keep the country open, even if it requires accepting some riskier health settings.