Census 2021: Australia is usually a bit like a supertanker, but this Census shows we’re changing course

Millennials now match the baby boomers, according to the Census figures. Picture: iStock

This Census is evidence of a nation that is determined to change direction. At a national level Australia is a bit like a supertanker: a change of course takes time and is done in increments. Figures reflecting core beliefs — like belief in a god of some sort — do not as a rule leap forward from one census to the next.

It isn’t so much the numbers that make the 2021 Census results riveting — yes, riveting — it’s the stories behind the numbers. I learnt early in my career that aggregate numbers measuring social change move at a glacial pace between censuses.

But two five-year leaps of eight and nine percentage points over a single decade shows something different, something purposeful; these figures tell the story of a nation that is actively making different choices.

The real action, the most powerful stories, are found deep within the census’s data vaults; these numbers have to be mined, cut, polished and paired with other data to reveal a beautiful, meaningful, insight.

The new shape of Australia features more people identifying and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander. Picture: Supplied

For example, the 2021 Census shows there was a 25 per cent increase in the number of Australians identifying as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander between 2016 and 2021. This compares with aggregate growth for Australia as a whole of less than seven per cent over this time frame.

These data points suggest that between census years Indigenous Australians were happy and no doubt proud to identify with, and to proclaim, their heritage.

The rise of ‘no religion’

The second example I thought was interesting relates to the question on religious affiliation. It isn’t so much the rise and fall of different denominations that tell a story. It is the spectacular rise of ‘no religion’ as a response to this question. This proportion has increased from 22 per cent in 2011 to 30 per cent in 2016 to 39 per cent in 2021.

The ‘no religion’ census response rose to 39 per cent.

Indeed the data suggests there is no reprieve, no hesitation, not even a wince, in our commitment to the no-religion trajectory. Neither calamity (climate) nor plague (Covid) it seems can persuade a rising proportion of Australians to return to their god-fearing ways.

I had thought that as Baby Boomers become ever more aware of their own mortality (starting in the 2020s) this might result in a sudden uptick in the collective congregation. Not so, it seems. Or at least not as yet.

Breaking down the data

So, what does all this mean?

In one sense the first cut of census results confirms what most Australians kinda understood was happening anyway. But later, as more data is released, and as data scientists busily beaver away data mining, cutting, polishing and comparing their precious data with data from previous censuses a grand narrative emerges.

That grand narrative I think is one of change. Generational control is shifting. There is a greater sense of Indigenous identity. Core beliefs that once bound our nation tightly are loosening. China is being usurped by India as our primary source of immigrants, foreign students and overseas workers. There is even evidence of a return to the suburban home. Darryl Kerrigan was right: our (suburban) home is our castle!

I am sure this theme of a fundamental change in direction will become even more apparent later in the year when work-from-home data is released.

The lesson for business and government is that there will be no return to normal. The lesson is to read the market, to read the electorate, to understand the drivers of modern Australian thinking.

Even from yesterday’s high-level data release it is evident to me at least that Australia is being reshaped not so much by individual events but by the quiet determination of the Australian people to create what they consider to be a better version of their nation for the 2020s and beyond.