Britain’s economy and politics have been slowly poisoned by Brexit

Then chancellor of the exchequer Rishi Sunak in 2021 with Boris Johnson, the man he replaced as Britain’s prime minister. Picture Daniel LEAL / AFP

UK politics is plagued by dysfunction, scandal and chaos, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s disastrous Conservative government slowly cascading to defeat and dogged by former prime minister Boris Johnson’s failings, while Labour is revitalised and poised to return to power next year but with doubts about its program and leader, Sir Keir Starmer.

I’ve recently returned from nine days in London, absorbing the politics and media, and having talked to Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat politicians, in addition to a crossbench peer, the assessments were near universal with a mix of dismay, disappointment and acute embarrassment about what has happened to the UK.

The fundamental root cause of the political turbulence marked by five prime ministers in seven years and two general elections in six years, despite five-year parliamentary terms, is the ruinous decision to exit the EU in 2016. That referendum result, with just 51.89 per cent voting to leave, has had catastrophic consequences.

It is now widely accepted, even though it was foretold at the time of the vote by those arguing to remain, that the UK is not only politically weaker in Europe but its economy has suffered significantly as a result. Many economists are predicting a deep recession in the UK this year, with Brexit exacerbating a global inflationary and energy crisis.

On any measure, the UK economy has suffered significantly since exiting the EU. The pound has lost value; there are critical skills shortages; businesses are dealing with increased regulations, supply chain and border delays, and; consumers are paying more for goods and services. Moreover, the government has increased taxation and spending, and immigration has never been higher.

Even that xenophobic, rabble-rousing fool, Nigel Farage, now admits “Brexit has failed”. The former UKIP leader campaigned for Brexit with the promise that it would make the economy stronger, boost the UK’s standing globally and the social benefits, such as increased NHS spending, would be huge.

Instead, the UK is now the worst-performing economy in the G7 and, according to the IMF, the worst-performing economy in the G20. That is, worse than Russia, which is engaged in a prolonged war with Ukraine and dealing with economic sanctions. Farage blames the Tories for Brexit failing to deliver any benefits to Britons. What a charlatan.

Sunak met US President Joe Biden at the White House last week. His mission was to strike a broad UK-US free-trade agreement, as the Conservative Party promised at the 2019 election and Brexiters all but guaranteed. But Sunak failed to land the FTA, accepting weeks ago it was not a “priority” for either country.

It should be no surprise that the Conservative government led by an unpopular Prime Minister is facing a monumental defeat at an election expected by December next year. (The election can be held as late as January 2025.)

The polls show the unpopular Sunak and his shambolic government to be on a hiding to nothing.

The latest Westminster voting intention, measured by YouGov, shows the Conservative Party with a dismal 25 per cent voter support while Labour is at a high 44 per cent.

The Liberal Democrats are on 11 per cent, Reform UK at 8 per cent and the Greens 6 per cent. The polls have worsened under Sunak and he lags Starmer as preferred prime minister.

The same demographic challenge facing the Liberal Party in Australia is also a problem for Britain’s Conservative Party.

Almost two-thirds of millennials, those aged 25-40, say the Tories “deserve to lose the next election”, and 45 per cent plan to vote Labour, according to centre-right think tank Onward. Only 21 per cent would vote Conservative.

Almost a third of millennials think the Tories are “dishonest”, and a quarter say they are “incompetent” and “out of touch”. Johnson has been a distraction for Sunak and few Conservative MPs lament his demise.

He resigned from parliament ahead of publication of a report by the House of Commons Privileges Committee for misleading parliament over Downing Street lockdown parties. His three-year prime ministership was a trainwreck for the UK. He was a liar and a buffoon who leaves parliament in disgrace.

Anthony Seldon, in his book Johnson at 10 (Atlantic Books), savages Johnson as unfit to be prime minister. Seldon, the leading academic writer on British prime ministers, says he undermined institutions, left the UK weaker economically and in its standing abroad, and failed in his pandemic response.

“The damage that Johnson has done to the country is beyond measure,” he concluded.

In his three years as Labour leader, Starmer has turned the party back towards the centre and shorn it of the mad leadership of Jeremy Corbyn. He has purged Corbyn and many ultra-left Corbynites from party ranks and retreated on many of his retrograde policies such as nationalisation of utilities and higher taxes on the wealthy.

The British voters have all but decided to send the Sunak government to the dustbin of history but are not yet fully sold on Starmer.

The former prosecutor lacks a bit of razzle-dazzle. He needs to continue to define his party and how he would govern. He has named five priorities – grandly titled “missions” – that he would focus on: growth, health, education, crime and climate change.

Former PM Tony Blair told me Starmer had saved the Labour Party from oblivion and confidently predicted he will lead Labour back to power. It would be the first Labour election win in almost two decades. It was shrewd of Anthony Albanese to visit Starmer during his recent visit to London, because he is almost certain to be occupying 10 Downing Street by the end of next year.