Biden can use State of the Union address as a deperately needed reset
The giant convoy of Russian artillery heading ominously toward Ukraine’s capital foreshadows a depressing backdrop for Joe Biden’s first State of the Union address, to be delivered on Tuesday night (Wednesday AEDT), potentially at the same time as Russian forces are toppling Ukraine’s government.
Until Vladimir Putin’s invasion, the US President’s speech on the Capitol would have amounted to an extended apologia for higher consumer prices, seemingly never-ending pandemic restrictions and a reform record that had fallen far short of what was promised.
The US constitution requires the president “from time to time” to brief congress on the “state of the union”, an address presidents have used to launch domestic political agendas, update the nation on – or even launch – foreign wars.
Biden has an opportunity to unite Americans behind Washington’s moral and economic leadership of the global fight to force Russia to leave Ukraine. The President’s speechwriters have significantly altered the draft speech at the last minute, according to reports.
The address will likely be a rallying call for unity among democracies and freedom-loving people around the world against Russian aggression. Climate change, social and economic reforms have fallen down the order of priority.
To his credit, Biden has been right about the growing threat of autocracies to democracies, a theme of almost every foreign policy speech he has made as president.
The White House has also been right about Russia in particular, not only its intention to invade Ukraine, but the sequence of events leading up to the invasion.
The attack on Ukraine has been a political godsend for Democrats, who had been facing an electoral rout in the mid-term elections in November.
Biden, with an approval rating slightly above 40 per cent according to the average of major US polls complied by pollster Nate Silver, needs all the political help he can get.
Wars always help incumbent leaders. George W. Bush’s approval rating jumped from 56 per cent to 71 per cent in the month after the US invaded Iraq in 2003.
The deluge of negative headlines raining on Americans, about inflation, Covid-19 and the more bizarre manifestations of far-left ideology in American schools, have given way to images of the uplifting stoicism and valour of the Ukrainian people and government.
Biden can be seen as a unifier. NATO has never been so unified since the Cold War. Republicans and Democrats have never been so unified since Biden’s election. For the first time in his presidency, some Republicans have even started to praise him.
Meanwhile, former president Donald Trump’s intemperate remarks praising Putin as a “genius” last week embarrassed Republicans and look more ridiculous as Russia fails in its aim to take Ukraine while enduring enormous costs.
Biden’s first address to the nation will cap a tumultuous first year in office, in which the US withdrew from Afghanistan, another half a million-plus Americans died from Covid-19, and inflation shot up to the highest level in 40 years.
He desperately needs a reset. The State of the Union address, at which members of congress will be allowed to attend without masks for the first since 2019, could be it.
It’s an opportunity to dump or delay some of the more radical elements of the Democrat legislative agenda – such as reducing carbon emissions by 2030 – without losing face, too.
This new proxy war with Russia carries real risks for Biden too. If the invasion drags on, petrol prices will be higher for much longer, increasing inflation even more. Interest rates will rise sooner and by more than expected.
Perhaps the President will start pinning the blame for inflation and interest rates on the Kremlin.