The growing expectation in Canberra is that the first order of business for Anthony Albanese on his return on Thursday from a mini-break in Queensland will be locking in a cabinet reshuffle.
Then again, the Prime Minister may be planning to wait until after the NSW State Labor conference this weekend before pulling the trigger, considering he may already have his plate full working out how to deal with a thousand angry pro-Palestinian protesters trying to beat down the doors of Sydney’s Town Hall.
Given there will be some factional rumblings from the NSW Left over who takes one of the more likely cabinet spots up for grabs, Albanese might want to avoid unnecessary conference angst and wait until the whole clan returns to parliament in a couple of weeks.
Yet whenever he might be planning to shuffle the deck chairs, the second expectation is the one more assured. And that is it will be as minimal as he can make it.
That doesn’t mean it doesn’t present problems. Byzantine rules around state and factional quotas, aside from ensuring stability within his internal support base, could well mean he ends up with a weaker cabinet than he started with.
Reflecting on where the polls are, and his own approval ratings, Albanese may not have the luxury of making a captain’s pick that ignores the internal structures that frame the numerical question of who goes into cabinet and who doesn’t.
He also likes to see himself as the “consensus guy”.
The reshuffle will be based on two key elements: need and political opportunity.
It is assumed Indigenous Affairs Minister Linda Burney and Skills Minister Brendan O’Connor have given the PM notice that they are hanging up their hats.
The Attorney-General, Mark Dreyfus, says he isn’t going anywhere.
And although he denies it, there has also been speculation on whether Trade Minister Don Farrell plans to retire.
At the least, Albanese is looking at two cabinet vacancies that need to be filled.
The opportunity this affords him is the trigger to move his damaged Immigration Minister Andrew Giles out of the portfolio.
Considering Giles’s position in the Victorian Left as one of the PM’s key numbers men, we can expect Albanese to spare the minister his blushes and move him sideways: a non-demotion demotion.
Giles’s accomplice in the immigration detention fiasco, Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil, is likely to be spared.
While there has been talk of Queenslander Murray Watt moving into her job, he has become a victim of his own success in agriculture. He has helped Labor lift its profile in the regions and built bridges with an alienated sector for Labor. Albanese might be reluctant to move him.
The PM might be also be mindful of demoting a female cabinet minister.
The question becomes one of who comes in to cabinet. Burney’s replacement in the portfolio is tipped to be NT Labor senator Malarndirri McCarthy, which makes perfect sense as it will put her squarely up against the Coalition’s Indigenous affairs spokeswoman in the Senate, Jacinta Nampijinpa Price.
Beyond Labor’s arcane rules that put a premium on factional weight over merit, there is also the Senate/house balance.
Burney is NSW Left and in the lower house. The NSW Left, over which Albanese presides, will claim her spot as theirs.
Trying to pick what Albanese might do is as luckless as taking a stab in the dark. With the exception of the retirements, the more public facing problem that it presents is largely of Albanese’s own making.
There is a broad consensus that putting his factional mate Giles into the immigration portfolio in the first place was a mistake that was going to come back to bite him. And it has, spectacularly. The issue is who goes in to replace him.
There will be a strong case to give the portfolio over to the Right, considering how potent it is as an electoral issue. There is talk of WA MP Matt Keogh, a right winger, being elevated from the outer ministry into the role.
The Victorian Left would have to be compensated. This could take the form of a Victorian Left backbencher like Kate Thwaites, Julian Hill or Jess Walsh coming into the junior ministry.
In this respect, Albanese isn’t blessed with a deep talent pool to draw from, which becomes more complicated if O’Connor, also Victorian Left, retires from cabinet as expected.
His replacement would likely be junior minister and former ACTU boss Ged Kearney, who ticks the factional/state boxes.
One thing is sure; some MPs are going to have their noses out of joint whatever the outcome.
Albanese’s job is to bloody as few of them as possible, even if the end result is a cabinet and ministry that is weaker from it.
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