As the government limps into the midwinter break, speculation of a reshuffle is rife, with the wounded Clare O’Neil and Andrew Giles tipped to be moved.
Morale in the ranks is low after inflation jumped to 4 per cent in the year to May and the government’s big sell on stage three tax cuts, energy rebates and payrises for low-paid workers was overshadowed by Fatima Payman.
The trigger for a reshuffle will come in the form of a political retirement.
After serving in the NSW and federal parliaments for 21 years, Indigenous Australians Minister Linda Burney is the most likely departure.
Sources close to Burney believe the 67-year-old is ready to pass on the baton after leading the government’s failed Indigenous voice referendum campaign alongside Albanese.
Murray Watt, a left-wing powerbroker and Albanese ally, is being floated as a contender to replace O’Neil as Home Affairs Minister.
The Queenslander, elevated into cabinet after Terri Butler’s shock loss to the Greens, has proven an effective performer in gruelling Senate estimates hearings.
An inner-city dwelling Agriculture Minister, Watt is a good communicator whose combative skills would have helped the government better manage immigration detention and border security scandals.
If Giles and Albanese can move on from the 2015 ALP National Conference where they failed to get up a motion rejecting the Coalition policy of turning back asylum-seeker boats, so can Watt.
Western Australia MP Patrick Gorman, now assistant minister to Albanese and a former WA ALP secretary, has been floated as a replacement for Giles.
There is an internal argument that WA should have greater ministerial representation.
Albanese, who despite multiple scandals has done well to retain his ministerial line-up without change since 2022, is faced with a pre-election decision to rejuvenate his team.
Senior Labor sources say it is imperative for him to promote talented backbenchers and assistant ministers.
Albanese is expected to use the five-week parliamentary winter break to consider a refresh. Asked last month if he was considering a reshuffle, he said “No”.
While the Prime Minister is proud of his record in maintaining an unchanged line-up and not being forced into a shuffle, there is a growing internal push for renewal.
Political retirements, or overseas postings, provide an opening for him. Don Farrell, 70, Mark Dreyfus, 68 in October, Burney, 67, and Brendan O’Connor, 62, are considered in the twilight of their careers.
Asked when he would consider retiring, Albanese last month said he was “one of the youngest” sitting around the G20 leaders’ table.
The 61-year-old, who entered federal parliament in 1996, said: “I’m enjoying the job and I don’t take anything for granted.”
If he were to press the reshuffle button, the factions and caucus would determine who steps up and the Labor leader then would appoint portfolios.
Factional and state quotas complicate Labor ministries.
The Right faction holds 16 cabinet and ministry spots, the Left 14.
NSW, with 11 spots, heads Victoria (seven), South Australia (four), Queensland (three) and Western Australia (three).
Labor MPs considered ready to step up include Malarndirri McCarthy, Jenny McAllister, Gorman, Tim Watts, Tim Ayres, Anthony Chisholm, Andrew Charlton, Daniel Mulino, Peter Khalil and Marion Scrymgour.
Ministers Pat Conroy and Kristy McBain are also future cabinet contenders.
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A cabinet reshuffle will reset the government’s focus and energise Anthony Albanese’s troops, as Labor and the Coalition move to an early election war footing.