Both have defence credentials. When Russia invaded Ukraine, it shut down Ukraine’s internet communications and consequently expected a quick victory. But, Musk’s SpaceX had a new system running in two or three days which saved Ukraine. But, when Ukraine wanted to launch an assault on Crimea Musk feared a nuclear war and stopped Ukraine. Thiel is a co-founder of rocket and missile group Andurill.
As I described yesterday Elon Musk is heading Trump’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which aims to slash the US bureaucracy by up to $US2 trillion.
Musk wants the whole JSF/F35 program scraped, saying the fighter is an obsolete and poorly functioning weapons system whose mission is best replaced by un-crewed aircraft.
Musk says the JSF/F35 is a “jack of all trades, master of none” because it was “required to be too many things to too many people” and was the result of a “broken” requirements system. He also said the jet was the “worst military value for money in history.”
Thiel is more restrained, but believes the defence establishment needs to be restructured.
The current structure has stifled innovation and blocked vital change, leading to poor performance on major programs such as the development and usage of the JSF/F35.
If Trump takes the advice of Musk and Thiel it will have enormous implications for both the United States and Australia.
In the US the top people in the defence establishment must know China’s Chengdu J-20 is superior than the JSF/F35 in key areas, and the emergence of high-technology drones is challenging older aircraft like the JSF/F35.
If current policies are continued the total cost of the JSF/F35 project will be about $US1 trillion.
The aircraft is ineffective for countries like Australia because it can’t fly far enough without high-risk airborne refuelling. Endless problems keep arising but when one is solved more keep emerging
The US has the F-22, but it is no longer in production and ageing.
For Lockheed Martin, the Joint Strike Fighter/F35 had been a bonanza because the contract was set up on a ‘cost-plus’ basis and the decades of profitable remedial work required have underpinned the group’s profit.
While Musk and Thiel have alerted Trump, both Lockheed and the defence establishment will fight Musk and Thiel, pointing to the more than 250,000 advanced manufacturing jobs in the project — particularly in the Fort Worth area in Texas — and the $US9.4bn in annual economic impact.
In space exploration, Elon Musk relaced Lockheed-style cost plus contracts with fixed price contracts and applied his ‘idiot index’ management system to slash costs.
Musk (plus Amazon’s Jeff Bezos) replaced Lockheed Martin in space development, but not in aircraft. Musk’s incredible innovation has taken the US to a leading position in space.
Musk and Thiel must know current defence establishment processes will not be easy to stop. But, if they succeed, part of the Western world’s global military expertise may be lost and replaced by venture capital operators.
One outcome is that both US defence chiefs and Lockheed admit they failed and the JSF/F35 program does not deliver anything like air superiority. They abandon cost-plus contracts but find a way to retain technology skills. But, such revolution will require different leadership and Musk will be urging Trump to embrace a new approach.
In Australia we have even more fundamental decisions to make. Over the past two decades Australia’s top military defence hierarchy have made equipment mistake after mistake. They dis not have the equipment skills required and they ignored advice and warnings from groups like Air Power Australia
Using Air Power and other sources have I been alerting readers to the JSF/F35 disaster for a couple of decades. I gain no pleasure from the implications of what it looks like is happening in the US.
Our past military chiefs not only made the wrong decisions on the JSF/F35, but made a series of other disastrous military equipment decisions. The mistake-prone generation of defence leaders appointed the current people, so there is risk they too do not have the requited skills and will make the same mistakes.
Since Kim Beazley retired as defence minister in 1990, defence ministers from both sides of politics have been snowed under by the military establishment.
Beazley was like Musk and did not rely on management reports, but checked the detail himself. Australia does not have the US equivalent of Elon Musk or Peter Thiel to tell the Prime Minister the truth.
Irrespective of who wins the next election, what is happening in the US is too serious to be left to defence ministers. This is a matter for the national security committee.
We need to begin a program of consultation with the US — including Musk and Thiel — urging the truth be recognised, but harnessing existing US, Australian and global skills in different directions. Air Power is another group of top advisers outside the defence department which can help once the truth is recognised.
A necessary part of the process is recognising what is happening in our region and the technological strength of China, not just in aircraft but in anti-submarine, frigate and drone weapons.
We need to examine what is actually going to be required in future defence, rather than being sucked in by salespeople. The security committee needs frank assessment of whether we have the talent among our defence chiefs to come to the correct conclusions.
But, our decision-making is not made easier by the fact that in the US they too have developed a set of defence chiefs who do not fully consider what others are doing. If Trump embraces the recommendations of Musk and Thiel then we will need to adapt.
The biggest new decision our defence chiefs have made is to join the nuclear club in the AUKUS project.
Strategically it makes a lot of sense, but the US submarines we propose to buy are the product of a failed US defence establishment decision-making process. China is using molten salt-cooled thorium-driven submarines. In addition, their submarine detection weapons are now far more sophisticated.
Once the Americans have faced the truth on the JSF/F35 we might be able to get into a discussion about whether the Western world is heading in the right direction with submarines given the Chinese are going in a different one altogether.
More Coverage
Why PM Albanese should follow Shinzo Abe’s playbook at G7
The most successful Trump whisperer was the late Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe. He rarely debated Trump or rushed to defend Japan’s contributions.
Finally, the West has struck its first blow of Cold War II
Those who have criticised President Trump for his erratic trade policy – myself included – must admit our misjudgment. The trade war has turned out to be a phony war. This is the real thing.
Few are closer to US President Donald Trump than technology titans Elon Musk and Peter Thiel. Both are telling the American President the horrible truth about the failures of a cornerstone of US and Australia’s air defence — the Joint Strike Fighter/F35.