Albanese has most to fear from an Eden-Monaro fail
Albanese lost an entrenched local member variously estimated to be worth between 1 and 3 per cent of the vote only to then find himself pitted against a Prime Minister at his most popular, sporting a Teflon coat thanks to his handling of a pandemic that is putting the fear of god into people all over again because of the outbreak in Victoria.
Then there was politics as usual with the stories about branch stacking on an industrial scale in Labor’s Victorian branch and the ASIO raids on the home of a NSW Labor MP, which fitted into the government’s new strategy of muscling up to China, the country that dare not speak its name. These events may or may not hurt Labor’s vote but they certainly won’t help.
Add to the list of things that went wrong the appearance of some inexcusably sloppy Labor campaign material, like corflutes put up in an inspired bit of recycling by an enthusiastic volunteer that carried the authorisation of disgraced former NSW ALP secretary Kaila Murnain. Then there was a billboard urging voters in Wagga Wagga to vote for Labor’s Kristy McBain. Wagga Wagga is not in Eden-Monaro. A good proof reader would have picked that up.
While that was happening, Morrison and NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian (even more popular in the electorate than the PM) held separate virtual town hall meetings as part of the Liberal campaign, with up to 4000 dialling in to each event. Non-contact campaigning in the middle of winter has its upsides.
Some things have gone right for Labor. Last year it managed only a few dozen postal ballots in Eden-Monaro. As of Wednesday morning, it had reached 4372 to the Liberals’ 2882. In a contest threatening to be so tight, with fears COVID-19 will keep voters away from booths, every single one of those will count. Both sides rightly talk up their candidates; Labor’s McBain and the Liberals’ Fiona Kotvojs. They are very good local candidates with ministerial potential, so as assets they effectively cancel out each other.
A few weeks ago, when the stories were about bushfire recovery, Labor was even daring to be confident. Now nervousness has crept in with doubts about the size of the turnout, apparently fed by ignorance an election is even occurring, and which way the undecideds will break. Momentum, the “big Mo”, the ingredient most prized in such battles, has switched to the Liberals. They are spending more, their television ads have been sharper and they run much more frequently.
Days out no one wants to predict the outcome, although it’s fair to say the Liberals are more optimistic now that the conversation is again dominated by COVID-19 and managing the economic recovery, accompanied by a carefully constructed focus on national security.
The Australian Electoral Commission has briefed parties that it will count pre-poll votes and postal ballots on Saturday night, so the result could be known late in the evening. Labor insiders say it could be so close the result will hinge on a recount. On the government side they were discussing where Morrison should hang out in case he needs to get to a victory party; perhaps in Queanbeyan, only a short drive from the Lodge.
Labor MPs (mostly) mean it when they say a once-in-a-century by-election loss because of a once-in-a-century pandemic will not spell trouble for Albanese’s leadership.
But consider this. On the night of the Longman by-election on July 28, 2018, I called LNP backbencher Luke Howarth to ask him if he thought the 10 per cent drop in the party’s primary vote had implications for Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. No, he said, because the result was what was expected. He was genuine.
Three weeks later Howarth was ready to ask Turnbull at a joint party meeting to vacate the leadership so Peter Dutton could take over. Turnbull beat him to it, calling the spill himself. Turnbull was gone by the end of that week.
This is not a prediction, only an observation that there are always consequences, whatever the result, for a leader on the way up, on the way out or in a holding pattern.
The immediate reaction by Labor MPs will be dictated by the magnitude of any loss. If it’s a Saturday night massacre, Albanese will struggle to control the eruptions, with potentially lethal damage. If he loses by a small margin, then as much as they might try to rationalise it, the disappointment will build and eventually spill over.
When Labor insiders recall the 2018 super Saturday by-elections, they reflect that winning them all was not necessarily the best result. It bred complacency. The themes used in Longman and four other seats that worked so well against Turnbull stayed the same against Morrison last year. It was a significant mistake because they did not work against Morrison.
If Morrison wins he will improve his majority and greatly enhance his authority. He should use it to initiate enduring reforms. And increasing or reducing any tax does not qualify as reform.
It has never been easy, as I detailed here last week when Howard-Costello rewrote the tax system 20 years ago by introducing the GST. It was hard during the Hawke-Keating years too. When they weren’t organising rebellions in caucus, Labor Left parliamentary faction leaders were holding press conferences to condemn government policies and dissociate themselves from them.
If Morrison fails to seize the moment, people will be entitled to ask: what is the point of him and his government? He will be relegated to the Malcolm Fraser-Kevin Rudd class of prime ministers who wasted opportunities.
If he loses, there will be other questions, like why his popularity hasn’t translated into votes. Yes, lingering antipathy in bushfire-affected parts of Eden-Monaro would be a factor but, more broadly, concerns could grow that his popularity may be only skin deep, or simply a reflection of the glory garnered by the premiers.
Last, a few words about Norm Haywood, an old friend who died recently. Despite ongoing medical problems, Norm, a loyal, long-time Liberal staffer who worked for many years for Wilson Tuckey, remained good-natured and optimistic. Norm was as unfailingly polite as Tuckey — with whom he remained close and who spoke at his funeral last Saturday — was not.
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If Labor wins Saturday’s Eden Monaro by-election, Anthony Albanese should steal Scott Morrison’s line from last year’s election to declare it a miracle. Because that’s what it will be.