2020 race: Shout-a-thon: First presidential debate between Trump and Biden a verbal shambles
There have been a tedious set of allusions to the first presidential debate in Cleveland. It was painted as a prize fight, two heavyweights slugging it, looking for a knockout blow.
I’m not sure whether this says more about the parlous state of professional boxing or the dismal state of politics in the US, probably a bit of both.
This was a shout-athon. Personal insults were flung about. It was a verbal shambles. Trump and Biden did not shake hands beforehand by agreement. Audience responses were frowned upon. Subjects are known in advance, questions predictable. There was no fact checking of what either Trump or Biden said so they could say anything they liked without being pulled up in real time.
Host Chris Wallace from Fox News kicked the debate off with questions to both men about the Supreme Court appointment of Amy Coney Barrett being whisked through the Senate before the election. Trump argued on the basis of a presidential and senate mandate. Biden meandered on about Obamacare. Trump interrupted. It was predictable stuff that quickly entered into Covid territory and ended with Roe v Wade.
Trump then interrupted Wallace’s question on healthcare. The President was in a feisty mood, telling Wallace he was debating the moderator rather than Biden.
Often unwatchable
As television goes it was dispiriting, often unwatchable with two men talking over the top of each other and Wallace struggling to maintain control until a flustered Biden turned to Trump and asked, “Will you shut up, man?”
The Covid crisis was then discussed with some respite from interruptions. Trump continued to claim he had done a “phenomenal job” and the only ones who didn’t think so were “the fake news”.
Trump went personal. Biden babbled about a Covid plan without providing a clue what it is. And then he went personal on Trump. Then they both talked over the top of one another again.
Wallace moved onto Trump’s strength, the economy. Trump accused Biden of wanting to close the country down. It was perhaps his most compelling argument to voters.
Then it was Trump and his personal taxes. Trump claimed he paid “millions” in personal taxes in 2016 and 2017. Biden argued his new tax regime would create seven million new jobs with the federal government going down the buy American path, a standard policy setting that for Australians echoed the Bill Shorten policy.
Far from the Thriller in Manilla
Families were mentioned and then the shouting got underway. Wallace implored the two men to stop interrupting one another. He may as well have been whistling dixie.
The boxing metaphor fell flat. This was not the Thriller in Manilla or the Rumble in the Jungle for that matter. Biden babbled and stammered. Trump lied when it suited him. It was more like a veterans’ soccer game where the players spent most of the 90 minutes arguing with the referee before scrounging out a nil-all draw.
What we can comfortably conclude is Biden walked into the Case Western Reserve University under more pressure because he is the front runner. Trump had to make up ground and sway undecided voters.
Most minds already made up
But the polling reveals that most minds are made up. Just two weeks out from the 2016 election, 13 per cent of voters remained undecided. Polling now shows that figure has more than halved with five weeks to go.
Voting has begun in Illinois, Minnesota, South Dakota, Wyoming and Virginia and by the time the second presidential debate kicks off in Miami on October 15, a further 13 states will have opened the ballot boxes up. By the time the last debate starts in Nashville on October 22, voters will have been able to cast their votes in 34 states.
We can trace the power of this debate in changing minds by looking at polling now, in the subsequent five weeks before the election and of course the election results as they come through on November 3.
There is a lot of polling around. Some of it good, some of it not so, even more of it partisan. Biden’s lead narrowing
My analysis pulls out nine polling companies being the most reliable with solid methodology.
An examination of polling over the last fortnight from the most highly rated pollsters continues to show a narrowing of Biden’s lead especially in national polling. While there is some movement in swing states, it is not consistent.
Biden continues to lead where it counts.
The ABC/Washington Post poll released yesterday has Trump ahead by four points in Florida among likely voters with Biden ahead by a single point among registered voters polled.
The distinction is often lost on Australians where voting is compulsory. Each of the 50 US states has its own rules in terms of registration and the way votes are cast. In Florida, voters must register before casting a ballot. They cannot register on election day. There is a mail out ballot to voters who complete an application by October 24.
Registration be it as a Republican, Democrat or independent is crucial. Long story short, in polling registered voter numbers are more reliable.
Over the last month, Siena College, Fox News, Quinnipiac and Monmouth put Biden in front between one and five points in the Sunshine State. Earlier in the month, Marist had Trump leading by one point in a slightly higher sample size of registered voters.
In Pennsylvania, Biden leads by an average of nine points among registered voters in published polling results from Siena, Quinnipiac and ABC/WaPo over the last two weeks.
In states the Trump campaign might see as potential gains, Quinnipiac has Biden ahead by six among likely voters in Minnesota while Fox has Biden leading by ten in registered voters polled in Nevada.
Ohio looms large
The other state worth a look is Ohio. It’s been a red state for the last two elections but polling there shows an upset of a kind is possible with Fox News putting Biden ahead by five points among both likely and registered voters in a poll taken last week. Quinnipiac put Biden ahead by one point in their poll of likely voters conducted two weeks ago.
Betting markets continue to favour Biden. Across the major betting agencies, Biden is $1.80 to win on November 3 with Trump at $2.40. Not a lot of value there either way but long odds punters might have noticed Kamala Harris coming in from 200/1 when her place on the Biden ticket was announced to 66/1 today. Obviously, that presumes that Joe Biden doesn’t make it to the finish line for one reason or another.
The final point of the debate was set aside to discuss what is generally referred to as “election integrity” as a reference to Trump’s numerous comments suggesting if he’s beaten, it will only be due to voter fraud. Biden urged people to “vote, vote, vote” which is two too many votes per person. Trump maintained that unsolicited ballots sent “all over the place” could delay a result in the election of “many months”.
God help all of us.
Trump had everything to gain and Biden everything to lose. Ultimately, the debate was little more than a reflection of American political life and the yawning gap between the left and right. About the only predictable thing is there will be more interruptions, more shouting in a fortnight in Miami.
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