Vaccine hopes face another obstacle: Anti-vaxxers

What if half the population refuses to be vaccinated? Picture: NCA NewsWire/Bianca De Marchi

This week the Morrison government confirmed arrangements are being made with AstraZeneca and CSL which should ensure that every Australian can get a free COVID vaccine when they become available.

Optimism surrounding the prospect of a vaccine being developed and widely distributed, such that life on Earth can return to normal, is one of the reasons equities remain buoyed.

Let’s suspend the very real possibility a vaccine is not developed for many years, if ever.

Approximately 180 COVID-related projects are under way and more than 100 vaccines are being developed. Fifteen are reported to be in clinical trials, and according to the World Health Organisation, just four — from Moderna, AstraZeneca, SinoVac and Pfizer — have entered critical and final Phase 3 mass human trials.

The US has six vaccines in which a major investment has been made. Four of those have reported positive Phase 1 clinical trial results and two are in final Phase 3 studies.

But not everyone is going to co-operate.

The thinking among anti-vaxxers is perhaps best articulated by assistant professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida, Natalie Dean, who said: “I’m a vaccine researcher, and even I would place myself in the ‘not sure’ bucket”, adding: “the evidence that would convince me to get a COVID-19 vaccine, or to recommend that my loved ones get vaccinated, does not yet exist.”

Anti-vaccine sentiment once had a fringe presence in America, but social media and the need for individual uniqueness has helped the movement gain traction, and in 2019 contributed to the worst US measles outbreak since 1992. Eighty-nine per cent of measles patients in 2019 were unvaccinated or had an unknown vaccination status.

What if half the population refuses to be vaccinated? That possibility produces a range of scenarios I suspect the equity market has not yet contemplated.

In recent days insiders claim Russian vaccine developers have trialled the vaccine on themselves and taken short cuts to make the Kremlin look good in what appears to be a race in national pride like the space race.

Meanwhile, the US, Britain and Canada recently accused Russia of being behind attempted hacks of coronavirus research centres to steal COVID-related intellectual property.

Investors are buoyed by the hopes of a return to normality. But have they contemplated the possibility that “this” is the new normal?

Roger Montgomery is the chief investment officer at www.montinvest.com