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Trading Day blog: live markets coverage; plus analysis and opinion

The ASX pares early gains as its largest stock, BHP, shies from a key chart resistance level.

The ASX shrinks early gains as its largest stock BHP shies from a key chart resistance level.
The ASX shrinks early gains as its largest stock BHP shies from a key chart resistance level.

And that’s the Trading Day blog for Monday, January 15.

Samantha Woodhill 4.24pm: ASX higher as dollar erodes sentiment

The local share market finished the session slightly higher after losing early gains, as strength in currencies across the region cut into positive investor sentiment.

At the close of trade, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 was up 7 points or 0.1 per cent at 6077.1 points. The broader All Ordinaries index was up 10.9 points or 0.2 per cent, at 6187.7 points.

CMC Markets chief market strategist Michael McCarthy said it was a disappointing day for Australian investors.

“We charged out of the gates at the open this morning and that wasn’t surprising, we’d seen some good performances in the US and Europe on Friday night,” he said.

“But as the session has gone on gains have faded, it’s a similar story across the region and that does suggest that the macro factor that’s weighing on the markets in this region today is that weakening US dollar and the constant strength we’re seeing in the Yen but also locally in the Australian dollar.”

BHP gained 1.2 per cent to $31.90 while Rio Tinto grew 1.5 per cent to $81.80.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar bought US79.54 cents in late trade, up 0.5 per cent for the session against a weaker greenback.

Read more

4.13pm: Renminbi shares in Aussie’s glee

John Durie 4.08pm: Crunch time for new ASIC picks

With James Shipton due to start his term as chief corporate plod in a fortnight, he and the Federal Government have some work to do to fill his backbench.

As things stand today, deputy Peter Kell’s term expires in May and Commissioner John Price is out the door in March, which leaves just Cathie Armour in a long term role, which is due to expire in June 2022.

A decision is still to be made on who will be the litigation commissioner, a role trumpeted by Treasurer Scott “Cry Me a River” Morrison some time ago.

Read more

James Shipton will serve as the next chairman of the Australian Securities & Investments Commission for a five-year period from 1 February 2018.
James Shipton will serve as the next chairman of the Australian Securities & Investments Commission for a five-year period from 1 February 2018.

Bridget Carter 3.57pm: Quadrant’s $200m plus Darrell Lea scoop

Darrell Lea’s owners have reaped at least $200 million from its sale to Quadrant Private Equity, which has snapped up the confectionery maker.

The company is best known for its soft eating licorice and Rocklea Road products and was acquired by the Quinn family in 2012 after it was placed into voluntary administration.

Quadrant’s motivation for the acquisition is understood to be linked to Darrell Lea’s strong brand, its dominant position in the licorice market and potential for global expansion into the United States.

While the price paid for the operation has not been disclosed, The Australian can reveal it to be at least $200 million.

Read more from DataRoom

Matt Chambers 3.54pm: Alinta to leverage Loy Yang buy

Power company Alinta Energy has vowed to aggressively drive down power prices and disrupt the market stranglehold of the big three electricity companies, after finalising the $1.1 billion purchase of the Loy Yang B brown coal power station in Victoria from France’s Engie.

The deal, announced in November, was finalised today, with Alinta’s Hong Kong owner Chow Tai Fook Enterprises now having control of the plant, in the Latrobe Valley.

Read more

Bridget Carter 3.40pm: Darrell Lea-Quadrant deal at least $250m

Darrell Lea owners reap at least $200 million from sale to Quadrant Private Equity

More to come from DataRoom

3.36pm: The Trading Day ahead

Join the conversation with our Trading Day experts for breaking news and analysis in financial markets here and on Sky News Business (Ch: 602)

NOW: Patricia Forsythe — CEO, Australian Business Chamber

3.45pm: Markus Helsing — COO, JB Markets

3.50pm: Michael McCarthy — Chief Market Strategist, CMC Markets

4.00pm: Scott Phillips from The Motley Fool guest hosts

4.15pm: Banks Panel with Kirsty Lamont, Mozo and David Ellis from Morningstar

4.30pm: Econonics Panel with Stephen Roberts from Alexander Funds Management and James Swerling from AFEX Australia

(All times in AEDT)

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3.31pm: History taints BHP surge

Updated:

It’s deja vu all over again as BHP’s share price tests a major resistance level the month before its first-half report.

On 25 January 2017, BHP rose to $27.96 before closing at $27.89, slightly above the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement of the 2008-2016 fall.

But it was a false break and BHP fell to $22.96 over the next four months, even though its results in February were strong.

It’s a lesson on the importance of major Fibonacci retracement levels and the potential for false breaks.

It also shows how the market can tend to price in strong or weak results before the event.

BHP has today punctured the 50pc Fibonacci retracement at $32.03 with a 2.5-year high of $32.16.

But without a major new fundamental influence a significant pullback from this area is on the cards.

BHP last up 1.1pc at $31.90 after reaching the $32.16 high in early trade.

Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg

3.28pm: Growth tailwinds to spur risk plays

Upward revisions to US economic growth estimates will give a positive backdrop to risk assets early this week.

Atlanta Fed’s Q4 “GDPNOW” estimate rose to 3.3pc vs. 2.8pc after stronger-than-expected retail sales data on Friday.

While headline November retail sales rose 0.4pc vs. 0.5pc expected, upward revisions to US core October retail sales measures in the “control” group that feeds into GDP rose to 1.4pc vs. 0.8pc first reported.

US December CPI ex-food & energy rose to 1.8pc vs. 1.7pc expected, adding to positive signs for the US economy without calling for faster interest rate hikes.

The US is closed Monday for Martin Luther King Day.

S&P/ASX200 last up 0.2 per cent on 6083.3

Data revisions, surprises lay groundwork for risk assets.
Data revisions, surprises lay groundwork for risk assets.

3.13pm: Softbank jumps on spin-off speculation

Shares in Japan’s SoftBank Group soared six per cent Monday on reports it could list its mobile unit, raising up to $18 billion in one of the country’s biggest public offerings.

In a statement, SoftBank Group insisted no decision had been made, but acknowledged the listing was an “option.” “We are always studying various capital strategy options,” the company said. “The listing of SoftBank Corp. shares is one such option, but no decision has been made to officially proceed with this course.” The Nikkei economic daily, which first reported the plan, said the listing could bring in two trillion yen ($US18 billion), one of the largest initial public offerings ever for a Japanese company.

AFP

SoftBank founder and chief executive Masayoshi Son speaking during a press conference to announce the company's financial results in Tokyo. (Image: AFP/Kazuhiro Nogi)
SoftBank founder and chief executive Masayoshi Son speaking during a press conference to announce the company's financial results in Tokyo. (Image: AFP/Kazuhiro Nogi)

2.56pm: Aussie dollar bull case on Fed dissent

A debate over the suitability of the Fed’s 2 per cent inflation target is heating up with potentially significant implications for the AUD/USD cross.

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speculated the recent fall in US unemployment could spark a surge in inflation that — given the Federal Reserve’s current policy framework — could trigger interest-rate hikes.

A faction of the market fears projected monetary tightening by the Fed in this economic environment could bring on a recession.

“I‘m disagreeing with that framework,” Mr. Rosengren said, referring to the Fed’s “balanced” approach to achieving a 2pc inflation target and full employment, “my concern is if we get too far away from where we want to be on a sustainable unemployment rate, and we use this current framework, we will get to a situation where we have to raise rates fast enough that we will actually find it very difficult to get back to full employment without causing a recession.”

NAB head of FX Ray Attrill notes Mr. Rosengren’s alternative inflation target of a range between 1.5 and 3pc appears feasible given the last 20 years of economic activity encompassing recent low productivity and labour force growth.

The Fed would forseeably target inflation at the upper end of that range and have more scope to be patient with rate hikes, says Mr. Atrill says.

“How this debate and inflation evolves once Jay Powell takes the Fed reins in February is a big deal for how the US dollar — already through the 2016 lows in US dollar index terms — behaves this year,” Mr Attrill says.

“In particular, adoption of a target range for inflation and lengthy tolerance of inflation above 2pc will imply real US rates will be falling not rising even as the Fed proceeds with gradual policy tightening.”

He says this almost certainly be US dollar negative. In that case it would also be positive for Emerging Markets equities and the Australian dollar.

AUD/USD last US79.41 cents.

2.39pm: Smartphone scan app builds body mass

Shares in smartphone body scan software developer MyFiziq hold early gains of as much as 11 per cent near an highest of $1.50 as an ultra-sensitive market cheers the release of its latest investor presentation.

Touting its B2B2C credentials, MyFiziq offers a software development kit (SDK) to app developers in clothing, health & fitness, insurance and medical industries after a means by which to retrieve customer body dimension data via a convenient, consumer-friendly mechanism such as a smartphone camera.

Following its float on the ASX in October last year, the company sealed multiple joint ventures including the incorporation of its platform with a FitLab LLC app named ‘Mayweather Boxing + Fitness’ allowing users to base their workouts on that of boxing world champion’s Floyd Mayweather.

MyFiziq posted its first app development revenue in December last year of $188,560 and is entirely equity funded with $2m in convertible notes outstanding.

MYQ last up 10.3 per cent on $1.49

2.04pm: The Trading Day ahead

Join the conversation with our Trading Day experts for breaking news and analysis in financial markets here and on Sky News Business (Ch: 602)

NOW: Peter O’Connor — Shaw and Partners

2.20pm: Jessica Rusit — FIIG Securities

2.45pm: Stephen Innes — Head of Trading Asia, OANDA

3.00pm: Martin Crabb — Shaw and Partners

(All times in AEDT)

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2.03pm: ASX hints stage fright

S&P/ASX 200 is fading as it has done every day since it hit a decade high at 6150 last week.

The index is up 0.1pc at 6075 after rising 0.6pc to 6103.6 in early trading.

BHP is up 0.8pc at $31.78 after hitting a 2.5-year high of $32.16 and RIO is up 0.8pc at $81.30 after hitting a 6.5-year high of $81.89.

Westpac is down 0.7pc after rising 0.6pc and NAB is down 0.1pc after rising 0.7pc.

With 6 of 11 sectors are now in the red the overall picture looks weak.

The index looks to be forming the right shoulder of a potential head & shoulders top.

Bears must wait until Tuesday to see if the US tops out on the resumption of trade after its Martin Luther King long weekend, but the Aussie market is betting it will.

1.35pm: Property falls, halts year’s growth

Home prices across Australia’s five major capital cities have fallen slightly over the past week, but have risen close to four per cent on where they were this time last year.

Residential property values fell an average of 0.1 per cent across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide in the seven days to January 14, but lifted 3.9 per cent in the 12 months to Sunday.

Values in Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth each dropped 0.1 per cent, while Melbourne’s prices were steady, the latest figures from property research group CoreLogic show.

AAP

Home prices fell across most capital cities last week.
Home prices fell across most capital cities last week.

1.18pm: Ford accelerates EV push

Mike Colias writes:

A top Ford Motor Company executive said the company will now spend $US11 billion on electrified vehicles through 2022, increasing its previous estimates as it races to catch up on battery-powered cars.

The Dearborn, Michigan automaker previously committed $US4.5bn in spending on electrified products by 2020 and said in October it would divert an additional $US500 million from conventional products — including gasoline-powered products — over a five-year span. The $US11 billion commitment comes at a time when gasoline or diesel engines powered nearly all of the 90 million vehicles sold globally in 2017.

Read more

The 2019 Ford Ranger midsize truck is unveiled during the press preview at the 2018 North American International Auto Show (NAIAS) in Detroit, Michigan, on January 14, 2018. (Image: AFP/Jewel Samad)
The 2019 Ford Ranger midsize truck is unveiled during the press preview at the 2018 North American International Auto Show (NAIAS) in Detroit, Michigan, on January 14, 2018. (Image: AFP/Jewel Samad)

1.06pm: AMP banks on cancer research

Christian Edwards writes:

AMP Capital has taken a significant stake in a state-of-the-art cancer research centre in Victoria via its unlisted infrastructure investment vehicle, the Community Infrastructure Fund.

AMP Capital said it has acquired Partners Group’s 21 per cent stake in the Victorian Comprehensive Cancer Centre (VCCC), a research and treatment facility that houses the Peter MacCullum Cancer Centre in Melbourne’s Biomedical Precinct.

Completed in June 2016 at a price of $1 billion, the VCCC combines research, education and patient care in one facility.

The centre is a public-private partnership (PPP) with the Victorian state government, which will make payments to AMP over the course of a 25 year contract — AAP

AMP last up 0.3 per cent on $5.18

12.53pm: Local stocks shrink early gains

The S&P/ASX200 index careens toward Friday’s close, shrinking earlier gains of up to 0.5 per cent to last sit 9 points north of flat at 6078.6.

CBA, Westpac and BHP in particular closely track the index downward — the latter after gains of up to 2 per cent ahead of a quarterly production report due this week.

It’s a sea of green in the gold sector: Resolute and Evolution are up over 5 per cent, while Newcrest, St Barbara, Saracen Minerals and Resolute Mining hold gains over 3 per cent.

Here’s the price of spot gold over the last month:

Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg

Widely considered a hedge against inflation, investors typically takes buy gold with the expectation it is able to maintain a growth rate at least as high as a prospective inflation rate.

Spot gold last $US1339.51/oz

David Uren 12.32pm: Inflation complication grips the nation

Low rates of inflation have perplexed the world’s major central banks over the past two years, but the surprise over the year ahead could be inflation rising much more rapidly than anticipated.

Core inflation rates across the world’s advanced economies dropped to just 1.3 per cent last year, down from 1.5 per cent the year before, despite improving economic growth and falling rates of unemployment.

The “output gap” — the difference between what economies are producing now and their maximum sustainable potential output — is disappearing and, without that idle capacity, inflation should start to rise.

Read more

Source: JPMorgan
Source: JPMorgan

12.00pm: The Trading Day ahead

Join the conversation with our Trading Day experts for breaking news and analysis in financial markets here and on Sky News Business (Ch: 602)

NOW: Evan Lucas — The Lucas Report

12.15pm: James Swerling — AFEX Australia

12.30pm: Roger Samuel on VocusCLSA

12.45pm: Stephen Walters — Chief Economist, AICD

(All times in AEDT)

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Samantha Woodhill 11.46am: Woolies taps new drinks head

Woolworths Group has appointed Steve Donohue as incoming managing director of Endeavour Drinks, the umbrella business of the group’s Dan Murphy’s and BWS liquor stores.

Mr Donohue, who is currently supermarkets buying and merchandising director, will take over the reins from Martin Smith in April, who is set to retire at the end of the financial year following a transition period — read more

WOW last up 0.2pc on $27.30

John Durie 11.11am: ACCC probes MYOB-Reckon deal

The ACCC has launched a formal inquiry into MYOB’s $180 million acquisition of accounting software products from Reckon.

The deal, unveiled last November, was at a hefty price of over four times book value and more than Reckon’s market value at the time of $136m — read more

MYO last $3.56

10.40pm: The Trading Day ahead

Join the conversation with our Trading Day experts for breaking news and analysis in financial markets here and on Sky News Business (Ch: 602)

NOW: Tracy McNaughton — Head of Investment Strategy, UBS

11.00am: Ric Spooner — Chief Market Analyst, CMC Markets

11.45am: Tim Officer — Shaw and Partners

12.00pm: Evan Lucas — The Lucas Report

(All times in AEDT)

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10.28pm: Vocus shares higher after overhaul

Vocus shares (VOC) lift 1.3 per cent to $3.25 in early trade after the company announced an acceleration of its turnaround strategy by way of splitting its Enterprise & Wholesale arm.

10.24am: Analyst rating changes

Rio Tinto target price lifted 12pc to $85; Outperform rating kept — CLSA

BHP price target lifted 15pc to $32.80; Outperform rating kept — CLSA

Whitehaven target price lifted 10pc to $4.85; Outperform rating kept — CLSA

Alumina target price lifted 11pc to $2.60; Outperform rating kept — CLSA

South 32 target price lifted 24pc to $8.70; Sell rating kept — CLSA

OZ Minerals target price lifted 9pc to $8.70; Underperform rating kept — CLSA

Independence target price lifted 31pc to $3.35; Sell rating kept — CLSA

Western Areas target price lifted 14pc to $2.50; Sell rating kept — CLSA

Origin Energy cut to Sell — UBS

Santos cut to Sell — UBS

10.17am: Stocks leap into new week

Local shares leap higher at the open as investors back big miners ahead of the week’s production reports and the resumption of Wall Street trade after a long weekend for Martin Luther King day.

The S&P/ASX200 last traded 0.5 per cent higher on 6100.7 on trading volume 50 per cent below average for this time in the morning.

SWING STOCKS

+ St Barbara (3.2pc), Resolute Mining (3.2pc), Evolution Mining (2.7pc), Qantas (2.5pc), Blackmores (2.4pc), Harvey Norman (2.1pc)

— NextDC (2.2pc), Carsales.com (1.4pc), Treasury Wines (1.1pc), Origin Energy (0.9pc), Cimic (0.8pc)

10.08am: Experience Co. resumes Queenstown ops

Experience Co., formerly known as Skydive the Beach, says its Queenstown operations will now resume after a US man and an instructor fell into Lake Wakatipu on a tandem jump last week.

The company’s shares fell 10 per cent last week on the resumption of trade after the incident.

EXP last up 1.3 per cent 77 cents.

9.57am: Stocks eye strength at the open

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 share index is expected to open up about 0.5pc after strong gains on Wall Street.

The S&P 500 rose 0.7pc to a fresh record high of 2786.2 as core retail sales beat expectations and JPM jumped after its results.

Commodities were mixed with Brent crude up 0.9pc to $US69.87, Spot gold up 0.9pc to $US1334, spot iron ore down 0.5pc to $US77.40 and LME copper down 0.4pc.

BHP ADR’s equivalent close at $32.01 points to a 1.5pc rise in BHP.

BHP’s reaction to key Fibonacci retracement resistance at $32 will be key.

Overall trading should be quite with US stocks and bonds closed for Martin Luther King Day.

9.48am: Quintis to extend trading suspension

Quintis has requested of the ASX a voluntary suspension of its shares from trade, effectively extending the trading halt it entered into in May last year.

QIN last 30 cents.

9.42am: NAB throws weight behind run to US80c

AUD/USD may soon reach the 2017 peak, according to NAB.

NAB’s head of FX strategy Ray Attrill notes that ongoing poor US dollar price action has pushed the US dollar index below its 2016 low from September 8th, which was hit when AUD/USD peaked at 0.8125.

“USD weakness meant AUD/USD finally made mincemeat of the 0.7880-90 resistance area that had been functioning at midweek, to a high of 0.7922 and close of 0.7917, the latter the highest since September 26,” Mr Attrill says.

“In terms of Fibonacci retracement levels, AUD/USD has now recouped more than 61.8 per cent of the September-December decline and it has to be expected that we will retest 0.80 sooner rather than later and if so then quite possibly the 0.8125 2017 high.”

AUD/USD last 0.7914

"Sooner rather than later". NAB pitches case for near-term US80c dollar.

9.19am: Vocus splits business in overhaul

Vocus has ramped up its turnaround strategy in a move to split it Enterprise & Wholesale arm into two reportable entities: Enterprise & Government and Wholesale and International.

Current chief executive Michael Simmons will lead Wholesale & International, while current consumer chief Scott Carter will head the Enterprise & Government arm.

The telco’s acquisition of Nextgen opened new markets and growth opportunities, according to Group Chief Executive Officer Geoff Horth.

“The opportunities available in Vocus’ domestic wholesale business, combined with our investment in the Australia Singapore Cable, warrants the creation of a dedicated Wholesale and International division,” said Mr. Horth, “[this] will ensure that we have the focus, products and service proposition to be the provider of choice to customers in this important market”.

Vocus’ consumer arm will be headed by Sandra De Castro, joining the company after leading the digital transformation of ASX 50 companies over the last decade including AGL and NAB.

“We are very pleased to welcome Sandra to the Vocus team,” said Mr. Horth, “Sandra’s credentials and success in innovation and digital transformation brings invaluable experience to our Executive Team, and will help to drive the next phase of growth and customer centricity in our consumer division”.

The overhaul comes after private equity groups Kohlberg Kravis Robert and Affinity recently dropped competing bids for Vocus, the teclo coming under significant share price pressure in the last two years following tussles from within its executive ranks.

VOC last $3.21

Cliona O’Dowd 8.43am: Wall St rally augurs well for ASX

Wall Street’s record-breaking run should help push the local market higher this morning, but a lower iron ore price could keep gains in check.

The futures market is pointing to a lift of 31 points, or half a per cent, when trading opens.

CommSec chief economist Craig James said the positive overseas leads were a good sign for the local market.

“We have got a tremendous lead-in from overseas with record-breaking efforts from the US, with the Dow Jones up over 228 points,” he said. “That does augur well for our market.”

Wall Street finished the week on a high on Friday, with the three main US indices all hitting records as the earnings season kicked off. A government report confirming US retailers enjoyed a bumper Christmas season boosted stocks.

Read more

Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg

8.41am: T Boone era comes to an end

T. Boone Pickens, the famous oilman and investment manager, is closing the energy-focused hedge fund he has run for the past two decades.

The move comes as his health declines, and closes a chapter in a near seven-decade career that has included stints as a wildcatter, corporate raider, cattle trader and clean-energy evangelist.

In a letter published on Friday, the 89-year-old Oklahoma native cited his deteriorating health and weak financial performance as reasons for closing the fund. Mr Pickens said he is recovering from a series of strokes last year and a bad fall.

Read more

T. Boone Pickens, famous oilman and investment manager
T. Boone Pickens, famous oilman and investment manager

Matt Chambers 8.38am: Big week for big mining stocks

Strong December quarter performances amid high commodity prices could provide billions of dollars of extra dividends to Rio Tinto (RIO) and BHP (BHP) shareholders, with the potential for asset sales to boost these further.

Rio and BHP will deliver production reports this week and analysts are expecting strong operational performances as prices of iron ore, copper, coking coal and oil finished last year at much higher price levels than expected.

Read more

Eli Greenblat 8.34am: What lies beneath Amazon’s entry

The head of retail for global technology giant Intel has warned that all Australian retailers should be worried about Amazon, describing its Prime service — which could land in Australia this year — as a “critical competitive weapon’’.

Jon Stine, who leads Intel’s global sales and strategy for the retail, hospitality and consumer goods sectors, said Amazon was driving an accelerated evolution of retail as it went beyond just being a site that sells products to becoming a “de facto first stop for shoppers’’.

Read more

Michael Roddan 8.26am: ‘Perfect storm’ for unfair loans

The royal commission into banking and financial services is being urged to investigate systemic irresponsible lending in the $1.7 trillion mortgage market, as victims flood law firms with claims they’ve been saddled with unpayable debts.

Josh Mennen, superannuation and insurance principal at Mau­rice Blackburn, said his law firm had seen a dramatic increase in the number of borrowers complaining about unfair credit contracts.

Read more

APRA chairman Wayne Byres. Picture: Hollie Adams
APRA chairman Wayne Byres. Picture: Hollie Adams

8.04am: Oil on track for more gains

Oil prices have risen for a sixth day after Russia’s oil minister said that global crude supplies were “not balanced yet,” alleviating market concerns about a wind-down of the OPEC-led deal to reduce production.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said ministers from leading OPEC and non-OPEC producers will discuss the possibility of exiting the deal at a coming committee meeting, but said that “we see that the market surplus is decreasing, but the market is not completely balanced yet”.

His comments boosted prices, which rebounded from an earlier decline, though the market has not hit the heights it touched on Thursday, when Brent crude topped $US70 a barrel for the first time since December 2014.

Markets remained buoyed by the comments throughout the session, shrugging off data that suggested the US production may continue to surge. Brent crude futures rose 61 cents to settle at $US69.87 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 50 cents to $US64.30. WTI hit its strongest since late 2014 at $US64.77 on Thursday.

For the week, Brent rose 3.3 per cent while WTI jumped 4.7 per cent. The agreement between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia reached in late 2016 to cut 1.8 million barrels of crude daily is due to last until the end of 2018.

Reuters

7.06am: Local dollar edges above US79c

The Australian dollar is back above 79 US cents — just. At 6.35am (AEDT) on Monday, the Australian dollar was worth 79.08 US cents, up from US78.79 cents on Friday.

The US dollar fell to a more-than-three-year low against the euro on Friday, extending recent losses on expectations European Central Bank policymakers are preparing to reduce stimulus.

The euro’s rise weighed on the US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six rival currencies, Reuters reported “The index was down one per cent, after slipping to a four-month low of 90.954,” it said.

The Aussie dollar is also higher against the yen but has fallen against the euro.

AAP

6.53am: ASX set for stellar week

Record gains overseas and a strong futures index are pointing to a good start for the Australian markets in the week ahead.

The futures market is indicating a gain of 31 points or half a per cent when Australian trading opens this week — a prediction CommSec chief economist Craig James believes is reasonable.

“We have got a tremendous lead-in from overseas with record-breaking efforts from the United States with the Dow Jones up over 228 points,” he told AAP on Sunday.

“That does augur well for our market.” However, he suggests iron ore prices that dipped on Friday could hold back Australian stocks. He noted the rest of the base metals were a mixed bag. Oil and gold prices went up — the latter by nearly $10 — which should strengthen the energy sector and gold stocks.

In good news for consumer-focused companies and importers, but less so for exporters, the Australian dollar rose back above US79c.

The US public holiday for Martin Luther King Jr Day could also lead to restraint in Australia’s markets.

“We’ll be working on Monday ... but we won’t get too much guidance then from the American markets for our Tuesday session,” Mr James said. Several top-shelf financial indicators out this week — including December jobs figures, the ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence, and November’s housing and lending finance numbers — are likely to steer both the Australian dollar and markets.

They’ll also factor into interest rate expectations for the Reserve Bank’s first meeting of 2018 in February.

There is some Chinese economic data due for release this week and the US earnings season got underway on Friday, with strong results from banks JP Morgan, Blackrock and Wells Fargo.

AAP

6.45am: European and Asian stocks tick higher

European stocks edged higher Friday, with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and industrial names advancing, but gains were held in check by a surging euro on the back of a breakthrough in German government-coalition talks.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.3 per cent to close at 398.49, swinging into positive for the week and ending with a 0.3 per cent weekly gain.

Germany’s DAX 30 index closed up 0.3 per cent at 13,245.03, and France’s CAC 40 picked up 0.5 per cent to 5,517.06.

The UK’s FTSE 100 index edged up 0.2 per cent at 7,778.64, scoring another record closing high.

In Asian trading Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1 per cent, a record-tying 10th consecutive gain, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and South Korea’s Kospi closing up 0.9 per cent and 0.3 per cent respectively. The Japanese Nikkei Stock Average, however, closed down 0.2 per cent.

Dow Jones

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Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/trading-day/trading-day-blog-live-markets-coverage-plus-analysis-and-opinion/news-story/366c87934642421979c7e4df62aa9539