US spy agencies say Netanyahu’s leadership ‘in jeopardy’

The annual threat assessment also suggests Israel will fail to achieve its aim in the Gaza war of completely eliminating Hamas.

A new US global intelligence assessment says that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hold on office “may be in jeopardy” and suggests Israel will fail to achieve its aim in the Gaza war of completely eliminating Hamas.

While challenges to Netanyahu’s continuation in power have been widely discussed since Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, it appeared unusual for American spy agencies to offer their analysis of an allied leader’s political prospects in an unclassified document.

“Netanyahu’s viability as leader as well as his governing coalition of far-right and ultraorthodox parties that pursued hard-line policies on Palestinian and security issues may be in jeopardy,” said the assessment, part of a 40-page report on global threats from Gaza and Ukraine to terrorism and cyberspace that was released on Monday (Tuesday AEDT).

“Distrust of Netanyahu’s ability to rule has deepened and broadened across the public from its already high levels before the war, and we expect large protests demanding his resignation and new elections,” it continued. “A different, more moderate government is a possibility.” President Joe Biden and Mr Netanyahu have been increasingly locked in a war of words over Israel’s military offensive in Gaza, with the US president warning against an Israeli attack on the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Mr Netanyahu appeared to dismiss those concerns in an interview with Politico on Sunday.

Mr Biden warned Israel against a Rafah operation unless it took steps to protect civilians, calling it a “red line” and leaving open the possibility that he would withhold some types of US military assistance if the operation went ahead.

The 74-year-old Israeli Prime Minister became the country’s longest-serving leader by focusing on security, but he oversaw Israel’s worst-ever security failure on October 7, when major lapses allowed Hamas to attack southern Israel and kill 1200 people.

Public opinion has turned sharply against him, and large-scale protests calling for his ouster have occurred in Israel. Mr Netanyahu’s rule depends on avoiding snap elections and keeping his narrow parliamentary majority intact. He has vowed to stay on until he has led Israel to “total victory” over Hamas. Mr Netanyahu’s hope, analysts say, is a visible victory, such as killing the group’s top leaders in Gaza, that could help his popularity bounce back.

He is also under pressure from within Israel’s three-member war cabinet, which includes his two major rivals, Benny Gantz, leader of the National Unity Party, and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant.

If elections were held now, polls say Mr Gantz would easily defeat Mr Netanyahu’s Likud. Mr Gantz hasn’t ruled out working with the Palestinian Authority after the Gaza war and working toward a Palestinian state. Mr Netanyahu is at odds on the issues with the White House, which favours a Palestinian Authority role in post-war Gaza and renewed diplomatic discussion on an independent Palestinian state.

The US intelligence report, called the Annual Threat Assessment, comprises the views of all American spy agencies.

Israel will have difficulty vanquishing Hamas, it suggests.

Israel “remains focused on destroying Hamas, which its population broadly supports,” it states. “Moreover, Israel probably will face lingering armed resistance from Hamas for years to come, and the military will struggle to neutralise Hamas’s underground infrastructure, which allows insurgents to hide, regain strength, and surprise Israeli forces.”

Leaders of US intelligence agencies, including CIA Director William Burns and National Intelligence Director Avril Haines, testified about the report Monday before the Senate Intelligence Committee. Senators didn’t ask about the section covering Netanyahu’s political future during the hearing, which was interrupted several times by protesters denouncing U.S. support for Israel.

Burns told the senators he was continuing to negotiate, along with Israeli, Egyptian and Qatari counterparts, a three-part diplomatic plan that would see some Hamas hostages released in return for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel; a six-week ceasefire; and a surge in humanitarian assistance. Hamas has yet to agree to the plan.

“We’re going to continue to work hard at this,” Burns said. “I don’t think anybody can guarantee success.”

The Wall Street Journal