Ukraine’s fortunes hinge on how fast NATO can deliver arms

The weapons package for Ukraine could be worth about $US10bn and it sets up a test of wills between Trump and Putin.

Donald Trump’s decision to sell Patriot air defence systems and other arms for use by Ukraine could provide a badly needed boost to Kyiv in its war with Russia. But the central questions are how long will it take to get the new weapons into Ukraine and in what quantity.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been stepping up his missile and drone bombardment of Ukraine with the calculation that it will provide Moscow with a growing edge in a costly but largely stalemated conflict.

The promised build-up in Ukraine’s defences, announced Monday at the White House by Mr Trump and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation secretary-general Mark Rutte, depends on getting enough Patriots into the country quickly and, in the long run, stepping up the West’s production of interceptors for shooting down Russian drones and ballistic missiles, analysts said.

“The Russian tactic is to get the Ukrainians to waste all their existing air defence stocks and leave them exposed to a late summer or fall offensive,” said Celeste Wallander, a senior Pentagon official in the Biden administration. “If this is going to change Putin’s calculation on whether he will win, substantial deliveries would have to be carried out through the summer.”

Mr Trump’s decision is still a milestone. His agreement to sell advanced arms to European allies so they can pass them to Kyiv marks the first time the White House has agreed to furnish weapons for Ukraine that go beyond the deliveries former president Joe Biden set in motion before leaving office.

For Mr Trump, the willingness of European governments to pay the US for the weapons and funnel them through NATO is a key aspect of the new arrangement, enabling him to claim that he has achieved his goal of shifting more of the burden for aiding Kyiv on to allies.

Coupled with Mr Trump’s threat to impose secondary sanctions if Putin keeps up his attacks, it sets up an important test of wills between the two leaders. That is a major shift for Mr Trump, who once cast the Russian leader as a “nice gentleman” with whom he hoped to engage on Ukraine and other foreign policy issues.

Mr Rutte said the new weapons for Kyiv would include not just defensive systems, such as Patriots, but also missiles and ammunition for its forces to use in attacks against Russian forces. The weapons package for Ukraine could be worth about $US10bn ($15.3bn), two people familiar with the transfers said.

Putin has 50 days to reach a deal on Ukraine or the White House would impose tariffs of as much as 100 per cent on Russian imports, Mr Trump said. Though Russian trade with the US is modest, the White House could choose to impose tariffs or sanctions on other countries that import Russian oil, a potentially more harmful threat to its already struggling economy.

The ability of the US and allies to provide air defences to Ukraine, particularly against the growing threat of ballistic missiles, is limited not just by the cost of the Patriot systems but also by the West’s limited production capacity.

“Glass half full: Trump is giving Putin the real deadline of 50 days with a clear consequence if he doesn’t move to a ceasefire. Glass half empty: 50 days is very far away when Ukraine is being hit by 700 drones a night,” said Kristine Berzina, of the German Marshall Fund think tank.

“If Europeans send their existing Patriots to Ukraine and use the new supplies from the US to backfill, then it will matter. But if Germany and others wait for new Patriot systems before sending more to Ukraine, the help will seem far too late.”

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in a post on X on Monday he has assured Mr Trump that Germany would “play a decisive role” and would “quickly clarify” its contribution.

Lockheed Martin made 500 PAC-3 interceptors for Patriot systems last year, with a plan to increase the output to 650 by 2027. A European consortium manufacturing comparable interceptors for the Franco-Italian SAMP-T system produces a fraction of that amount.

To speed up delivery of the Patriot systems, Germany and other European countries could provide interceptors from their current stocks on the understanding that those systems will eventually be backfilled by systems purchased from the US

Mr Trump suggested on Monday that was part of his plan, saying Germany was going to send missiles “early on” and that “they’ll be replaced”. Another way to meet Ukraine’s needs would be to buy Patriot systems and interceptors directly off the assembly line. But it can take years for a foreign customer to buy Patriots.

One way to accelerate that process would be for Mr Trump to insist Ukraine be put at the head of the queue for receiving new deliveries. But that would mean other US allies around the world who have also ordered Patriot interceptors would need to wait.

Mr Trump did not say on Monday if he was prepared to intervene in the interceptor production schedule. Mr Biden took such a step when he was in office to get Patriot interceptors to Ukraine faster.

The process of arming Ukraine is expected to be overseen by General Alexus Grynkewich, the US Air Force general who serves as NATO’s top commander and the head of the US European Command.

Patriots are not the only US-made system that can be used by Ukraine to defend its skies. Air-to-air missiles can also be used by Ukraine’s F-16 jet fighters to shoot down drones and cruise missiles. Ninety AIM air-to-air missiles were among the US weapons whose delivery was put on hold by the Pentagon and Mr Trump later reversed. Thirty advanced PAC-3 interceptors were also part of that delayed shipment.

Multiple interceptors are usually needed to counter one Russian missile. On average, Russia currently strikes Ukraine with several Iskander M or Kinzhal ballistic missiles a day, in addition to cruise missiles and, on most days, hundreds of Shahed drones.

Russia has succeeded in significantly increasing its ballistic missile production since the full-scale invasion, and is also relying on KN-23 missiles, based on the Iskander design, that have been provided by North Korea, according to Western defence officials.

Ukraine’s military response has not relied solely on passive air defences, a prohibitively expensive and unsustainable strategy over the long term.

June’s Operation Spiderweb that destroyed several Russian strategic bombers – launch platforms for the cruise missiles – was part of that response. So is the relentless Ukrainian drone campaign against facilities throughout the production chain of the Russian military industry. In recent months, Ukrainian drones have struck Russian plants making fuel, electronics, navigation systems and explosives used in Russian missiles and drones.

Dow Jones