The unmaking of the Republican lower house majority

Jim Jordan has failed in the second ballot to become speaker. Picture: AFP

The Republican calamity continues. As I write, the House is still without a speaker more than two weeks after Kevin McCarthy was deposed by Representative Matt Gaetz’s band of political arsonists. Ohio Representative Jim Jordan hasn’t yet persuaded, cajoled, enticed or threatened his way to 217 votes. He may not get there.

It will be ironic if Mr Jordan wins: The founder of the House GOP’s Freedom Caucus must then become the unifier in chief. A man who during 16 years in Congress has never passed a bill would have to become a master legislator. A politician who gained power by bullying others would have to learn to persuade and energise them. He would find quickly that making demands in Washington has limits — as does anyone stuck with the speaker’s job.

Mr Jordan also has a fondness for government shutdowns. If he’s elected speaker, will he champion one even though the GOP’s four-seat House majority depends on 14 Republicans from districts Joe Biden carried in 2020, six of which are in New York or California? And how well will Mr Jordan, a former right-wing hellraiser, do at recruiting good candidates and raising the funds necessary to elect them? I’d bet not nearly as well as Mr McCarthy.

If he does end up speaker, Mr Jordan should fulfil his promise to return power to committees and operate under regular order, in which committees create and put forward legislation rather than party leadership ramming bills down members’ throats. He needs to stand by that promise even if a Republican committee majority approves budget bills he disagrees with, or brings to the floor measures to provide aid to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan, tied with more funding for border security. Looking at his record, one wonders if Mr Jordan will say regular order is proper only so long as it conforms to the views of the Freedom Caucus. Will a disrupter like him allow the House to pass measures backed only by Republicans? Or bills on which both Democrats and Republicans might agree?

The inestimable Representative Matt Gaetz, who gave America this period of instability and Republicans a PR disaster that could cost them their slim majority in 2024, said this week that “we should put a demand on the Senate to pass our single-subject spending bills.” Nice thought and a worthy cause in theory, but this will go nowhere — especially as an ultimatum from a loudmouth who blocked single-subject appropriations bills when speaker McCarthy was trying to move legislation that way.

Since the GOP holds only the House, and by only a bare margin, the next Republican speaker must set priorities, focus on the possible, and aim for incremental changes that bend government toward conservative principles. A Freedom Caucus backbencher can demand purity from GOP leadership. But a speaker must aim for the maximum reasonable advance in a conservative direction, not act as if he controls Washington with his gavel.

Any new Republican speaker must be careful about substituting his opinions for those of the House GOP membership writ large. He can try persuading, but given the disunity and anger in the House Republican Caucus, he can no more dictate to them than to President Biden or Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.

Still, for all the Republicans’ problems, there’s hope: Americans don’t like Democrats either. A September 23 Gallup poll found 56 per cent gave the GOP an unfavourable rating while 58 per cent rated Democrats unfavourably. The saving grace for Republicans is that on big issues, Americans pick the GOP by a large margin.

On which party “will do a better job of keeping the country prosperous,” Americans said Republicans by 53 per cent to 39 per cent, the GOP’s largest lead on this issue since mid-1991. When asked which party “will do a better job of protecting the country from international terrorism and military threats,” Republicans lead Democrats by an even wider margin, 57 per cent to 35 per cent.

Even when voters were asked which party would do a better job “handling the problem you think is most important,” Republicans lead 44 per cent to 36 per cent. This suggests the GOP’s views on such issues as crime and immigration are winners and that the Democratic approach on abortion may not be the sure-fire hit they think.

While no speaker vote will rescue House Republicans from their current troubles, they still have some things working in their favour. To keep their majority, Republicans must aim for incremental progress. Americans aren’t likely to reward a party that displays contempt for the hard, slow work of coalition building and governing. You can’t blame them.

Karl Rove helped organise the political-action committee American Crossroads and is author of The Triumph of William McKinley (Simon & Schuster, 2015).

The Wall Street Journal